USD CHF - to the earths core

Hello analysts and traders -

Let's take a look for a long term sell USD CHF - please note, our positions and entries will change with accordance for the market conditions.

COT Data:
Averages
Long Short Total %Long %Short
Avg_13 12,661 7,169 19,830 64% 36%
Avg_20 13,054 8,583 21,637 62% 38%
Avg_130 13,200 16,542 29,740 49% 51%

Now let us see the Net position changes - see how strong the Swiss Franc has become.
Date Long Short Net Change in positions
14/07/2020 16,526 9,469 25,995 64% 36% 7,057 3,279
07/07/2020 12,832 9,054 21,886 59% 41% 3,778 -560
30/06/2020 12,796 8,458 21,254 60% 40% 4,338 2,890
23/06/2020 11,739 10,291 22,030 53% 47% 1,448 -158
16/06/2020 9,150 7,544 16,694 55% 45% 1,606 -160
09/06/2020 10,463 8,697 19,160 55% 45% 1,766 -7,223

it is clear longs have been added.

Expectations based on the consolidation:

Technicals:

• 20month + consolidation of the pair ranging from 1.00 to 0.93 - now the price has broken the distribution
  Weekly demand zone - however, the demand has previous touches this is the so the chances of a breakthrough from the strong safehaven of the CHF is a likelihood.
  Looking at the VIX - we can see this increasing by a large amount first targets are 40.00
  DXY the dollar is weakening to a 95.2 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards - the lows of 82 are to be tested.
  
  Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings .
  Nasdaq monthly close will be a bearish hammer unless bulls keep the 10,600 supply intact.
  
  
  Fundamentals:
  US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning -
  We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming.
  Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding
  High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released
  Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy.
  US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all..
  Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops.
  Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour.
  
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  Team Lupa
  
  
  

Trade active:

a cool 120pips in now. waiting to hedge if price bounces of this low

Comment:

absolutely flawless