USDCHF: Long-term Bearish Trend Persists

170
Since 2022, the pair has been in a steady downtrend: consistent lower highs and lower lows within a multi-year descending channel from highs near 0.9200-0.9400.
Current price around 0.7753, following a bounce from the multi-year low at 0.76357 (green support zone marked on the chart).

Support:
0.76357 (critical multi-year zone, green line), below - potential extension to 0.7600-0.7550 (channel projection).
Resistance:
0.80833 (intermediate level, 2025 low), higher - 0.83797 and 0.84847 (next Seller Zones).
Long-term downside target: 0.7635-0.7600 (primary buyer zone on weekly), break below opens path toward 0.7400+.

Current structure remains bearish:
after a false upside breakout in 2025, price returned to the channel and is forming lower lows. Volume profile and oscillators indicate fading bullish momentum, with CHF staying strong amid risks and SNB policy.
Primary scenario - continued downside: holding below 0.7850-0.7900 leads to test of
0.7635-0.7600 in the coming months.
Bullish alternative (low probability): strong bounce from 0.7635 with break above 0.80833 targeting 0.83797 - would require sharp CHF weakness or aggressive Fed easing.
Fundamentally, the franc benefits as a safe-haven amid global uncertainty, while the dollar loses ground. Looking for weekly candle close below 0.7700 to confirm stronger bearish conviction.
Your view?
Short from current levels or waiting for a bounce off 0.7635? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.