Analysis
Sentiment: Short
Market Structure: Trend Line Break
Daily Resistance Level: .995. or .990
Daily Support Level: 98.00
Other Key Levels: 98.200 - 97.300 - 96.169 (50% Retracement Level)
Following the DXY analysis, we are expecting bearish moves on all USD/XXX pairs. Last week we that this pair created quite a few short signals on the daily time frame. We saw close below and a retest of the weekly trend line, then it we saw a close below the .990 level and a rejection off the .985 level. Like I mentioned with DXY, I expect to see some form of a pullback before bearish movements continue.
Predictions
We should watch how price reacts to the .990 level next week. This area is also a deep* neckline of a double top on the H4. If the .990 level is not respected we can see moves back up to the .995 level. I would look for shorts opportunities in this area and look to secure some profits back down at the .990 level since we are trading within a roughly 80 pip range between .995 and .985.
If price rejects .990 or makes it down to .985 and rejects this level, we can see another pull back up to the Daily trend line. I see this move occurring on Wednesday on the 19th when the Fed announces rate statements.
What would make this trade invalid?
There is divergence forming on other indicators not pictured here - if these continue I would change my sentiment to bullish after a break of the Daily trend line.
If prices crosses back over the Weekly trend line and respects it.
If my sentiment on DXY changes my sentiment on all USD/XXX pairs will change with it.
Anthony Sledge
Sentiment: Short
Market Structure: Trend Line Break
Daily Resistance Level: .995. or .990
Daily Support Level: 98.00
Other Key Levels: 98.200 - 97.300 - 96.169 (50% Retracement Level)
Following the DXY analysis, we are expecting bearish moves on all USD/XXX pairs. Last week we that this pair created quite a few short signals on the daily time frame. We saw close below and a retest of the weekly trend line, then it we saw a close below the .990 level and a rejection off the .985 level. Like I mentioned with DXY, I expect to see some form of a pullback before bearish movements continue.
Predictions
We should watch how price reacts to the .990 level next week. This area is also a deep* neckline of a double top on the H4. If the .990 level is not respected we can see moves back up to the .995 level. I would look for shorts opportunities in this area and look to secure some profits back down at the .990 level since we are trading within a roughly 80 pip range between .995 and .985.
If price rejects .990 or makes it down to .985 and rejects this level, we can see another pull back up to the Daily trend line. I see this move occurring on Wednesday on the 19th when the Fed announces rate statements.
What would make this trade invalid?
There is divergence forming on other indicators not pictured here - if these continue I would change my sentiment to bullish after a break of the Daily trend line.
If prices crosses back over the Weekly trend line and respects it.
If my sentiment on DXY changes my sentiment on all USD/XXX pairs will change with it.
Anthony Sledge