Tom Hall Market Review #10 - Wednesday, 03 April 2019
Tom Hall Market Review #10 - Wednesday, 03 April 2019
U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
The USD.CHF Daily timeframe formed a high-test reversal candle on the 02, April 2019 after an acceleration back into the crucial structure.
The structure consists of 0.9980 horizontal resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement ( 07, March High to 20, March Low ), and 50EMA.
In addition, the Weekly timeframe bearish RSI divergence confirms my lower timeframe thesis.
The reward to risk on this particular opportunity isn't great as we have to respect the Weekly 50EMA and ascending trendline support dating back to 12, February 2018.
The positive comparative to negative confluence factors validate a trade opportunity. However, opening a CHF trade parallel to my EUR.CHF active position would increase my maximum exposure.
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc
The AUD.CHF textbook Daily descending wedge formation presents clear levels of both support and resistance; this makes it easier to identify a take-profit and stop-loss placement.
Although price-action continues to be trapped below the descending trendline, a breach of the previous lower-high on the 01, April 2019 confirmed early signs of a trend change; this indicates a breakout to the upside is highly probable.
In regards to take-profit levels, there are two that hold the most significance.
The first, is the Weekly descending trendline dating back to 08, January 2018, this aligns with the Weekly 50EMA, both of which provide a level of structure resistance at 0.7150
Second, is the high of 0.7230 testing the descending wedge and Weekly structure resistance.
This option does carry more risk; however, there is an option to trail a stop-loss if / when price approached 0.7150
S&P 500
The strength of price-action since the 02, March 2009 historical ascending trendline rejection shows no signs of slowing down as it approaches Daily structure resistance.
The final Daily structure available is at 2870, should price-action close above this a retest of the all-time high at 2935 is highly probable.
I'll continue to sit on the sideline until confluence indicates a short term consolidation period is available.
U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
The USD.CHF Daily timeframe formed a high-test reversal candle on the 02, April 2019 after an acceleration back into the crucial structure.
The structure consists of 0.9980 horizontal resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement ( 07, March High to 20, March Low ), and 50EMA.
In addition, the Weekly timeframe bearish RSI divergence confirms my lower timeframe thesis.
The reward to risk on this particular opportunity isn't great as we have to respect the Weekly 50EMA and ascending trendline support dating back to 12, February 2018.
The positive comparative to negative confluence factors validate a trade opportunity. However, opening a CHF trade parallel to my EUR.CHF active position would increase my maximum exposure.
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc
The AUD.CHF textbook Daily descending wedge formation presents clear levels of both support and resistance; this makes it easier to identify a take-profit and stop-loss placement.
Although price-action continues to be trapped below the descending trendline, a breach of the previous lower-high on the 01, April 2019 confirmed early signs of a trend change; this indicates a breakout to the upside is highly probable.
In regards to take-profit levels, there are two that hold the most significance.
The first, is the Weekly descending trendline dating back to 08, January 2018, this aligns with the Weekly 50EMA, both of which provide a level of structure resistance at 0.7150
Second, is the high of 0.7230 testing the descending wedge and Weekly structure resistance.
This option does carry more risk; however, there is an option to trail a stop-loss if / when price approached 0.7150
S&P 500
The strength of price-action since the 02, March 2009 historical ascending trendline rejection shows no signs of slowing down as it approaches Daily structure resistance.
The final Daily structure available is at 2870, should price-action close above this a retest of the all-time high at 2935 is highly probable.
I'll continue to sit on the sideline until confluence indicates a short term consolidation period is available.
