80% of Traders Are Long USDCHF

Over the past sessions, I’ve been closely monitoring USDCHF, and the current structure is starting to present a very interesting high-probability scenario.
From a price action perspective, the market has just rejected a major higher timeframe supply zone around 0.8000. This area has historically acted as a strong distribution zone, and the recent reaction confirms the presence of selling pressure.
At the same time, we are seeing a clear loss of momentum after the impulsive bullish move, with price now breaking internal structure and moving into a corrective phase.

Looking at retail sentiment, over 80% of traders are currently positioned long. This kind of imbalance typically acts as a contrarian signal, suggesting that the market is more likely to move against the crowd.

From a COT perspective, the US Dollar is starting to show signs of weakening, while the Swiss Franc positioning indicates potential accumulation. This divergence often precedes corrective or reversal phases.
Adding another layer, seasonality data for April shows a tendency for USDCHF to underperform, reinforcing the bearish or pullback scenario.

My Plan
At this stage, I am not interested in chasing the market.

Instead, I am focusing on two key scenarios:
1. Pullback & Continuation Short
If price retraces into the 0.7900–0.7950 area, I will look for bearish confirmations on lower timeframes to target a move towards 0.7800 and potentially 0.7750.

2. Reaction from Demand
If the market continues lower into the 0.7750–0.7800 zone, I will monitor for a structural shift (CHoCH) to potentially position for a short-term long back into premium.

Invalidation
A strong break and acceptance above 0.8050 would invalidate the bearish scenario and suggest continuation to the upside.