Tom Hall Market Review #12 - Wednesday, 10 April 2019
U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc The USD.CHF Daily price action continues to decelerate at the 1.000 horizontal structure resistance. Additional confluence factors consist of the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA.
The 4-hour timeframe continues to form bearish RSI divergence indicating early signs of an intraday trend change. A break and close below .9977 confirms the trend change forming a new low, in addition to breaching the ascending trendline 50EMA, and 200EMA.
Dollar weakness is expected over the coming months ( DXY analysis ) confirming a potential trade opportunity against the Swiss Franc.
U.S. Dollar Index The DXY continues to trade below the 97.60 horizontal structure resistance dating back to June 2017. Additional signs of Dollar weakness are beginning to develop, including the bearish Weekly RSI divergence, Daily head and shoulders formation, and intraday trend change.
The weakness identified confirms my U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc thesis, providing additional positive confluence factors as I monitor a trading opportunity.
Euro / Japanese Yen In yesterdays Market Review #11 I outlined the multiple layers of confluence that consist of the 125.70 horizontal structure resistance, ascending trendline ( 15, January 2019 ), descending trendline ( 01, March 2019 ) 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
The Daily structure resistance was rejected as price action developed a bearish engulfing candle ( 09, April 2019 ). This candle confirms my trading rules as I await a valid entry on the 4-hour timeframe.
The 4-hour timeframe continues to form HH's and HL's, this Indicates continued bullish pressure and no early signs of a trend change. A break and close below 125.12 is required prior to a trading opportunity.