LoneWolfCapital

USD/CHF - 25 Year Falling Wedge Breakout Confirmed

Long
FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
USD/CHF has broken out of a 25 year falling wedge pattern that began in 1980.

You must purchase high-quality historical data such as eSignal to see past price action on this pair as TradingView only allows day up to 1992 on USD/CHF . The lower trend-line has 4 high quality touches rather than just the two TradingView displays.

When the EUR/CHF peg was removed, the USD/CHF pair suffered massive downside losses due to the rapid appreciation of the CHF. Looking at long-term charts, we can see that this CHF appreciation acted as a fundamental catalyst to retest the backside of the falling wedge after breaking out back in July 2014.

We also reacted beautifully off of the .618 Fibonacci Retracement creating a higher low on the monthly chart for USD/CHF . If the USD continues to appreciate against the CHF, we will end Quarter 1 of 2015 with a massive bullish pinbar on the quarterly chart for this pair.

Confluence:
1. 25 year falling wedge breakout - Bullish Reversal Pattern
2. Retest of upper trend-line / backside of wedge
3. .618 Fibonacci Retracement Respected
4. Higher monthly low formed
5. Price remains buoyant above monthly 50 EMA for the first time since 2001
6. 50/200 EMA Golden Cross about to occur on Weekly Chart. Last cross of these EMA"s was back in 2002 to the downside (Death Cross), last upside cross (Golden Cross) was 1997.
7. Strong USD Fundamentals align with this Bullish View. CHF needs to catch up with USD Index.
8. Price has traded above parity for 5 trading days

Comments

Hey ActiveTrader, very deep analysis on this pair. Great job as always. Thanks for sharing and Good Luck to You :)
+1 Reply
Great stuff, Paul! Beautiful analysis as always. Fellow IPer here! :D
+1 Reply
Great viewpoints as always.
+1 Reply
Thank you @afrazier1!!
Reply
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