ZenTrader111
Long

Return to parity USD-CHF, -ive interest rate effect kicking in?

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
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The shock decision by the SNB to introduce -0.75% deposit rates and simultaneously remove the EUR-CHF floor of 1.2000 has opposite effects on the CHF. A higher more negative interest rate should reduce demand for and the value of CHF. The removal of the EUR-CHF floor would see a huge appreciation in the Franc as the Euro has been artificially maintained at a certain strong level,i.e. 1.2000, to benefit Swiss exporters. The huge upward pressure from the removal of the floor, which saw a selloff of Euros and investors move into Swiss Franc as a safe haven. This pushed USD-CHF down forcefully.

But now the upward driving force of negative interest rates seems to be kicking in. The USD-CHF is up over 2% today. The price has moved above the conversion line and the conversion line has moved above the base line, both weak bullish signals. If there is a daily close above 0.9269, this will be bullish . Also, the price action looks set to move above the cloud, i.e. above 0.92648. If the price maintains above this level, then we should see a swift return to parity.
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