The US-shape time series currency band indicates for the USDCHF to upward in long term and USDCHF may up to 1.5000 as expected by the Siwzerland holders of US Treasuries of current value $ 226 billion, the 7th largest US treasuries holders. The S-curve of the time series currency band indicates for the USDCHF to upward in medium term and to downward in short term by the Fed/SNB sterilization to slower the weakening of the CHF by the USD to maintain the US-Switzerland trade's relationship. The Switzerland holders of US Treasuries expects for 10-15 % annual return by holding the US Treasuries in long term.
The time series interest rate differential currency band at current interest rate differential structures and future expectation to indicate the USDCHF to upward in medium term and downward in short term by the sterilization. CHF carry traders follow the S-curve and the interest rate differential based currency band for their carry trading activity on the USD and USD-denominated debt securities.
The current estimated medium term target zone for USDCHF is 0.9700-1.0200-1.0700. At 0.9700, the CHF carry traders carried the USD and USD-denominated debt securities and to drive the USDCHF to 1.0200 and currently being stabilized at 1.0200. Profit booking made by the CHF carry traders to pressure the USDCHF down to 0.9900 and CHF carry traders re-entered the market by re-carrying the USD and USD-denominated debt securities. At such, the Swizerland holders of US Treasuries looking for long term target zone for 10-15 % annual return expectation and the CHF carry traders looking for medium term target zone for 10 % annual return expectation.
The re-carrying made by the CHF on USD and USD-denominated debt securities at 0.9900 likely will continue to drive the USDCHF to break the 1.0200 central band/parity up to 1.0700. At 1.0700 the CHF carry traders may re-booked their profit and at the same time the Fed/SNB re-sterilized the USDCHF in short term to central band/parity 1.0200 by establihing this level as the new lower band/ceiling of the new medium term target zone. At such, in long term the USDCHF will align, realign and continuously realignment to upward as indicated by the U-shape, S-curve and interest rate differential based currency bands.
The time series interest rate differential currency band at current interest rate differential structures and future expectation to indicate the USDCHF to upward in medium term and downward in short term by the sterilization. CHF carry traders follow the S-curve and the interest rate differential based currency band for their carry trading activity on the USD and USD-denominated debt securities.
The current estimated medium term target zone for USDCHF is 0.9700-1.0200-1.0700. At 0.9700, the CHF carry traders carried the USD and USD-denominated debt securities and to drive the USDCHF to 1.0200 and currently being stabilized at 1.0200. Profit booking made by the CHF carry traders to pressure the USDCHF down to 0.9900 and CHF carry traders re-entered the market by re-carrying the USD and USD-denominated debt securities. At such, the Swizerland holders of US Treasuries looking for long term target zone for 10-15 % annual return expectation and the CHF carry traders looking for medium term target zone for 10 % annual return expectation.
The re-carrying made by the CHF on USD and USD-denominated debt securities at 0.9900 likely will continue to drive the USDCHF to break the 1.0200 central band/parity up to 1.0700. At 1.0700 the CHF carry traders may re-booked their profit and at the same time the Fed/SNB re-sterilized the USDCHF in short term to central band/parity 1.0200 by establihing this level as the new lower band/ceiling of the new medium term target zone. At such, in long term the USDCHF will align, realign and continuously realignment to upward as indicated by the U-shape, S-curve and interest rate differential based currency bands.