thanks for sharing! this is what I see on USDCHF :
nadavhurwitz
⋅
@Saeed966, Nice!
There seem to be a few trendlines to be broken looking back to April 2019
Investroy
⋅
Amazing bias, do you think the price will reach your target?
nadavhurwitz
⋅
@Investroyllc, Its hard to answer that. Let me explain...
I enter trades based on conviction. The more positive signs I see to enter a trade vs. sign not to enter the trade - the higher my conviction.
In this case:
1. MACD divergence
2. RSI divergence
3. Wedge pattern bullish breakthrough
4. trend isn't "healthy". Meaning support levels to not become resistance but price is still moving down.
5. Strong up price moves & weak down price moves.
Now to our targets...
No matter how strong my conviction (in this case its strong), I have no way of knowing how far the trade will go.
I obviously hope it will go far, but hoping isn't worth anything in trading.
Price action can reverse at anytime with no explanation at all.
My way to rationally choose take profit levels relies on support/resistance levels and/or Fibonacci levels when trading Harmonic Patterns.
Every one can use there own way - as long as it methodic, consistent and suits their psychological biases.
For me I know that I can wait for ages to take profit and therefore sometimes end up not making any pips at all because price action reversed on me.
That's why I lay out in advance take profit levels as follows:
1st TP at around 1X my risk, based on support/resistance levels.
2nd TP at around 2X my risk, again based on support/resistance levels.
3rd TP is open ended and I move up the stop based on trends at the height low (long trade) or lower high (short trade)
Personally I placed my TP levels at the first 2 horizontal lines shown in the chart, with 1 open ended TP.