THE BIG PICTURE: Consider the long term down trend line in the swissy long term log chart. A break above the old resistance set up for a change in bias. Now that price is above the trend line the question is whether this pair can continue to show strength. That factor is accompanied by yet another symmetrical scenario. First take a look at segment A to B and place a regular fib retracement tool. The observation to notice is that the retracement culminating at C measures 50% of the segment from A to B. This is a powerful indication of the strength of the trend and supports the idea that price could reach the projected target at point D. Two final things to point out are that after the break above the old trend line, price found resistance at an old level of support thus reinforcing the importance of that old level. That test of old support becoming new resistance essentially pushed price back down to re-test the backside of the trend line.
THE TECHNICAL STANDPOINT: All factors here are pointing to more trade to the upside even if there is a drop to test the low at point C. The prudent stance at this point is to wait to see if there is some sort of shake out. That would suggest that the swissy will move rapidly to the downside to trap the bears and then drift back toward point D. The probability will improve as more time progresses with price above the long term support level. This scenario conflicts with the short idea submitted for DXY. The anticipation is that the swissy makes it move to point D and rolls over in line with the dollar. With that in mind the move from this point up to point D may be the actual trap which gets the bulls excited while the major holders are allowed to heavily re short the swissy at point D. That will then re align the Swiss Franc with the Dollar Index.
THE TECHNICAL STANDPOINT: All factors here are pointing to more trade to the upside even if there is a drop to test the low at point C. The prudent stance at this point is to wait to see if there is some sort of shake out. That would suggest that the swissy will move rapidly to the downside to trap the bears and then drift back toward point D. The probability will improve as more time progresses with price above the long term support level. This scenario conflicts with the short idea submitted for DXY. The anticipation is that the swissy makes it move to point D and rolls over in line with the dollar. With that in mind the move from this point up to point D may be the actual trap which gets the bulls excited while the major holders are allowed to heavily re short the swissy at point D. That will then re align the Swiss Franc with the Dollar Index.
