Johanes

FX Prices Zig Zag by Carry Trading Activity Q2 2018

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
CHF carry traders have re-entered the carry trading activity for the "second tranche" by pushin g NZDCHF             , AUDCHF             , CADCHF             and GBPCHF             to upward interior the medium term price stability/bands/ceilings. At the same time, JPY carry traders have re-entered the carry trading activity for the "first tranche" by pushing NZDJPY             , AUDJPY             , CADJPY             and GBPJPY             to upward interior the medium term price stability/bands/ceilings. The carry trading activity to pressure the EURNZD             , EURAUD             , EURCAD             and EURGBP             to downward's ceilings. At the same time, the carry trading activity supportive for slowing the downward movement of the major pairs NZDUSD             , AUDUSD             , CADUSD             and GBPUSD             by pushing those pairs to move to upward temporary.

At such, FX prices of the CHF band, JPY band, EUR band and the USD band will be "zig zag" interior their bands/ceilings, but their movements remains measurable by time series currency band. At such, the following trading plan likely rationale during the zig zag:

1. Long/buy the CHF band or JPY band, and or in parallel short/sell the EUR band. during this time USD band will be pushed up temporary.
2. After reaching their targets on CHF, JPY, EUR bands on 1st and 2nd tranches, short/sell the USD band, Inter-changed band's trading.

Summary: Carry trading activity supportive for maintaining price stability interior the bands/ceilings.
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