USD/CHF Trade war! LONG positions if the pair breaks 9EMA

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
‘Trade war’ – this scary phrase is really popular now among analysts and traders. There is still no agreement between China and the United States. As a result, we can face one of the most demolishing situations in modern history. Almost all countries will suffer from this conflict. Switzerland is not an exception. More than 9% of Swiss export is to China. More than 50% of Chinese import from Switzerland is gold .
Consequently, if the trade war fully breaks out, China could try to decrease its national currency. It could damage Swiss export and support the price of gold . Gold has already reached the level of $1300. The question is: ‘What will happen with the US dollar?’. In fact, the dollar can be considered as a ‘safe heaven’ currency. Also, China could start selling American Treasuries which can give the US dollar a short-term push up.
Meanwhile the pair USD/CHF has been correcting. The correction started on 8-th of May. The pair reached its local minimum yesterday and reversed up.

Technical analysis

1D TF - displays a global Bullish trend

4H TF - The trend is bearish , but the pair broke the local trend line up and started moving to the 38,2% Fibo correction level (1,01061). MACD lines are intersecting and Parabolic SAR reversed – thus there are signals to open ‘longs’.

Summary: it is possible to open long positions if the pair breaks its short 9-EMA (1,0080). In this case the next possible target is the 38,2% Fibo correction level.

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