Further losses were seen on the USD/CHF last week, shredding around 150 pips off its value into the close 0.9760. Throughout this bearish onslaught, the weekly support (now acting resistance) area at 0.9796-0.9902 was taken out, potentially opening the gates for prices to challenge the weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.9526 this week.
Moving down to the daily chart, the bullish Harmonic Gartley reversal zone (78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.9669/127.2% Fibonacci extension at 0.9651) has so far responded relatively well. Despite this, there is trouble ahead! Not only do we have the resistance level at 0.9822 nearby, there is also the underside of the recently broken weekly support area to consider at 0.9796. This – coupled with the H4 psychological resistance hurdle at 0.9800 makes this one heck of a ceiling to break through!
We are certainly not suggesting closing out your long positions here. We would, however, advise maybe taking some profit off of the table and moving the stop to breakeven though, since if we have another week like the last two, your trade which is now a winner could end in a loss!
Given this clear area of resistance on the horizon (see above in bold) which is marked on the H4 chart in yellow, we are going to be keeping a close eye on how the lower timeframes respond to this area. If we manage to spot a lower timeframe setup forming, we would, dependent on the time of day, look to sell from here, targeting mid-level support 0.9750 first and foremost.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.9822/0.9796 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
Moving down to the daily chart, the bullish Harmonic Gartley reversal zone (78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.9669/127.2% Fibonacci extension at 0.9651) has so far responded relatively well. Despite this, there is trouble ahead! Not only do we have the resistance level at 0.9822 nearby, there is also the underside of the recently broken weekly support area to consider at 0.9796. This – coupled with the H4 psychological resistance hurdle at 0.9800 makes this one heck of a ceiling to break through!
We are certainly not suggesting closing out your long positions here. We would, however, advise maybe taking some profit off of the table and moving the stop to breakeven though, since if we have another week like the last two, your trade which is now a winner could end in a loss!
Given this clear area of resistance on the horizon (see above in bold) which is marked on the H4 chart in yellow, we are going to be keeping a close eye on how the lower timeframes respond to this area. If we manage to spot a lower timeframe setup forming, we would, dependent on the time of day, look to sell from here, targeting mid-level support 0.9750 first and foremost.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.9822/0.9796 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
IC Markets is an online forex broker specialized in providing transparent trading solutions to both retail and institutional investors alike. We provide superior execution technology, lower spreads and unrivaled liquidity.