We have no intention of shorting this market within the current 4hr supply area. The reason for why simply comes from the following:
1. A 4hr Quasimodo lurking just above the 4hr at 0.9519 is just begging for price to fake higher.
2. A pattern completes right at the point of our 4hr Quasimodo .
3. Check out the round number 0.9500 (the upper limit of the 4hr supply area) positioned just below the 4hr Quasimodo level. A push above this hurdle will likely take out buy stops, which well-funded traders will want to sell into.
4. Notice from the price has NOT YET connected with daily supply at 0.9597-0.9502, thus leaving room for a further push north.
5. As per the , we can see that price is now only a few pips away from greeting the weekly swap level at 0.9512 (encompassed by the aforementioned daily supply area), again leaving room for further buying.
Technically, we believe this market is ready to drop, but with the mighty NFP due to take center stage later on today, this could invalidate our findings. Therefore, how we plan to approach this is to wait to see how price action on the lower timeframes behave once/if the market reaches 0.9519. If it becomes obvious that weakness is in the air, we’ll likely short this beauty, targeting the 0.9400 number first and foremost as do not forget that this level lines up with a daily swap hurdle coming in around the 0.9397 number.
Levels to watch/ live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.9519 (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).