ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Short

Short term Short USD/CHF 0.883X region (daily trend line)

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
232 34 2
Short term short on USD/CHF             in the 0.883X region based on daily downward trend line. This trade is dependent on EUR/USD's trend line holding the 1.38 level. Considering the iffy nature of the trade, I'd use a small stop loss of 25-50 pips only. Target would be low to mid 0.87XX region but again dependent on how high EUR/USD             goes.

PS: I already have an entry at 0.88374.
ForceFollower
2 years ago
I am still short, but it looks pretty bullish. What do you think, FWA?
snapshot
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I still have my short at 0.8865, it all really depends on what EUR/USD wants to do... if EUR/USD goes up, USD/CHF goes down but right now, I'm a bit hesitant on EUR/USD so by simple correlation, that means I'm a bit hesitant on USD/CHF as well... I'm considering getting out of my EUR/USD for break even and leaving my USD/CHF to run (currently up 40 pips)
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I'd like to see a lower low on H1, so I could leave it open for the weekend with a peace of mind.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I don't really think that's going to happen in the last few hours of trading...
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bardhok.ajvazi ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
im still confused. we propably have to wait monday to see what is going on.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I actually would've preferred a retest of the 0.8865 level and get rejected down for a "double wick" at the top of daily candle
Double wicks on USD/CHF, not surefire method but good for a few

(I just picked a few examples, I may have missed some but I think you get my point)
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Yes, I see your point. Double wick would definitely strengthen the bearish outlook. But I don't want to wait for that to happen. And I know, no news, trading business dying out for the week. No impulse for new lows (just as it couldn't make a new high either).
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
For the record, I didn't really expect much to happen today considering lack of news, Japan was on holiday, triple witching day So I will be watching closely as markets open next week...
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bardhok.ajvazi
2 years ago
snapshot

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bardhok.ajvazi
2 years ago
snapshot
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ForceFollower bardhok.ajvazi
2 years ago
What is it? A hidden divergence? So what do you think?
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bardhok.ajvazi ForceFollower
2 years ago
on H1 chart, it indicates a bullish divergence.

But daily, there is a big hidden bearish divergence. It claims a possible major decline.

I must do more thorough analysis.
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ForceFollower bardhok.ajvazi
2 years ago
So you've got a dilemma. :-) Yeah, your own research is your best tool you will ever find!
Anyway, I'm bearish (let's say the larger time-frame got the upper hand) and I'm looking to unload my position just above the 0.88 handle, ie. at .8801.
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bardhok.ajvazi
2 years ago
snapshot
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ForceFollower bardhok.ajvazi
2 years ago
Yes, and, unless I'm all wrong, I expect it to go down to roughly your red Kijun Sen line.
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Update: I'm still holding my sell from 0.8865 but based on how the low 0.88XX region held on Friday (previous resistance, now becoming support?), it looks like there's some bull strength in play so it's a bit concerning for bears.
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Retail bears want to short EUR/USD in the mid 1.38XX region, which if it happens should push USD/CHF down to 0.8780-0.8800, which is where I'll probably be looking to take profit.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Hmm.. I slept in by a lot, normally wake up at 4am (woke up at 9am instead). I see EUR/USD hit 1.3827 earlier today, had I been awake for that, I would've manually exited my USD/CHF at the lows but as per my last comment, I had set my TP in the 0.8780-0.8800 range.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Don't worry, pal. I was stopped out of USDCHF on a trailing stop for some petty cash. I'm taking this pair off my watchlist.

Btw, as you're in Toronto (and I'm in Central Europe) I was surprised to see you online only seven hours ago. I'm not your ma, but you went to bed very late and you haven't slept much. And the lack of sleep is not good for your decision making in the trading business... And you said you 'slept in by a lot'. :-) You must be kidding... :-) I need 9 hours of sleep every day, and if I don't get it, I make mistakes and get grumpy like I am being today...
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
My human clock is adjusted to that of a European trader, one of my business ventures requires me to be online late at night local time. So I get to kill two birds with one stone :).
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I just manually closed at 0.8810 for +55pips, reason being is because EUR/USD just hit the 1.384X region. I may have overestimated the correlation in regards to my previous TP region. This exit may be premature (given the double wick scenario) but it's safer considering EUR/USD could tank from here.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Looks like I jumped the gun a bit... if I had waited 5 minutes, I could've closed in my TP region for another 10-15 pips, oh well...
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Don't worry, I closed it at .8810 as well. I think there's going to be another push down. I've just reloaded at .8805 looking to TP at .878.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
OK. Failed. I get out and take a loss. And I take this pair off my watchlist.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I may consider shorting this if it gets back up to the 0.886X region, risking a few pips up there considering I caught 55 pips the first time around.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
After taking a closer look, EUR/USD may bounce from 1.381X, if it does then USD/CHF may get rejected from 0.883X.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Wow, I literally spoke too soon on that last comment lol, as soon as I posted it EUR/USD went down. Guess I'm just waiting for 0.886X now.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
My short filled at 0.8864 and got stopped out at 0.8876 = -12 pips. Looks like it was just a fake spike? Oh well, doesn't matter, I'm done with this pair for a while as well.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
:-) Currently I'm only looking to go short CAD and GBP, preferably by going long NZD and AUD.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I forgot to say that, other than that, I'm long NZDUSD (.854), looking to TP at the alternate high (.86036).
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
That's where I plan to re enter my shorts:
Pending Short NZD/USD at 0.860X, possible head and shoulder
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
However, having said that, USD/CHF has now tested the 0.886X region again, if price closes significantly below this level then we'll have the double wick scenario that I posted last week.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Hey, you have a clear mind indeed. I forgot about that scenario. Maybe I will keep an eye on it for some time yet.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
If price can close around here (0.8840), we'll have a double wick scenario in play.
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