Even before the 16th the price broke lower and retested these levels but sellers weren't able to keep the pressure on and lost the battle to the bulls at the 0.9780 - 0.9800 region. This can be seen from the 10th to the 15th of February where the resistance broke again to the upside.
We are now in a similar situation. However, the bulls seem to lack the strength to push to price a lot higher (although this might be because of the bank holiday?). This can be seen by the 24th and 25th of March candles.
Depending on the price action Monday the 28th (Easter Monday and also a holiday in a lot of countries incl. England) and especially Tuesday, current levels are a good place to short. Although caution is adviced given the US NFP numbers on Friday.
I'm looking for an entry on the break of the small we are currently in. With the following possible set-up
A break and close above 0.98 gives me a sign that the bulls are back in business for a test of 1.00, 1.080 and 1.0225.