After SNB's intervention in 2011 and again in 2015 I felt that I would never again trade and CHF pairs. However, It is now giving the most clearest long term wave counts of any USD pairs which also confirms my view of USD bearish cycle I have held since late 2013, see other charts link below. Whilst I have been little early and premature in thinking the top in dollars has formed in my earlier publications, the overall picture has not changed and this is now potentially offering massive profit opportunity.
Under this scenario the USD appears to be in a major bearish cycle which is in the final stage, taking the form of Ending Diagonal commencing from 1987 (as Tradingview do not have necessary historical data, for details please see Screencast chart link - screencast.com/t/GMjsjj3nkkH ) which is shown in monthly chart (see below) to give full picture of this potential ending diagonal (falling wedge of 3-3-3-3-3 construction). It seems highly likely that wave 4 has just completed and wave 5 of ending diagonal has commence and if it develops as anticipated could give some 3000 - 4000 pips and risking less than 500 pips. In fact that is based on weekly chart, but if drop down to daily or H4 entry could be taken with lot smaller stop loss.
I understand this view would go against the general sentiments in favour of USD and lots talked about raising interest which would be USD positive. There are so many cross currents at work to really consider for anyone to see clear picture based on that fundamental. Therefore my view here is based entirely on Technical Analysis and my interpretation of Elliottewave Principle.
So in summary: 1. Final stage of major bearish cycle in the form of ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction 2. Major top (wave 4) appears to have formed, with 2 attempted failures to break above previous highs (resistance) 3. Entry almost immediate (maximum stop under 400 pips), but on lower timeframe upon a pullback to Ideally to 1.0 - 1.01 zone with stop loss at 1.0275, ie approx 230 Pip (see H4 chart below) 4. Potential downside target offering 3000 - 4000 pips with some intermediate targets areas along the way. 5. To add confidence in coming to above conclusion see additional charts of other USD pairs giving the same overall view. 6. Invalidation would be price taking out the recent high at 1.0250. 7. If you trade on smaller time frame and wish to follow the trend then various methods could be used to manage the trade and look of re-entering short positions only and/or adding position on significant retracements.
Conclusion: If the above anticipated in USD unfolds then this could offer similar opportunities across several USD pairs in various degree. At the same time I anticipate significant bearish cycle in stock and putting this things together suggest possible outflow of money from USA's soil under repatriation of funds or unwinding carry trade with YEN being the strongest of all major currencies.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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If you are not already short, then it is best to wait for decent retracement may be to 0.99 or 1.0 zone. The earlier retracement anticipated did not materialise. So as we are looking for longer term trade there is no need to rush this. missing some 100 or so pips will not make much difference in overall scheme of things. However, waiting for retrace will actually help reduce risk of bad timing correct position. sizing. Hear is the chart with possible retrace, but remembe we do not have low of this leg yet but could form by early next week.
BuyBitcoins
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Thank you for the update.
DanV
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H4 time frame - for ideal for entry on pull back
Csys
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It seems the picture is getting more clear:
Csys
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Hello Swissie traders, here's the updated version of the picture as I see it.
DanV
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I would say probably we have very small wave c in this abc zigzag up. So from risk management it could be excellent initial short entry with stop just above that high and see if this develops in to wave 3 decline or not, nevertheless it should still yeild some nice profit for a unit of risk. Here is the chat for the details
Csys
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The (a)-(b)-(c) completion looks really disproportionate. It seems the (a) has completed and now it's the correction time. I think I will reverse my position to long to catch the (c).