Weekly closing price: 0.9901
Weekly opening price: 0.9900
Weekly view: Since the beginning of May, the pair has been consolidating between a painted at 1.0092-0.9928 and a support band drawn from 0.9581. As you can see on the chart, however, the weekly candle is now seen trading within shouting distance of the underside of the aforementioned supply base. As price was pushed lower from this area on two recent occasions (30/05 and 25/07), we feel history has a good chance of repeating itself here this week.
Daily view: Zooming in and looking at the daily candles, price topped out just ahead of a coming in at 0.9956-0.9921 last week. In view of this area being glued to the underside of the above said weekly supply base, we feel this daily zone will (if price connects with this barrier of course) hold prices lower from here.
H4 view: The Swissy started the day around the psychological barrier 0.99, which came after a relatively strong push to the upside on Friday from a broken Quasimodo level penciled in at 0.9863. For the time being, bids appear to be defending 0.99, potentially opening up the path north towards 0.9927: a very interesting Quasimodo (not seen the chart).
Direction for the week: As evident from the higher-timeframe charts, there’s scope for a small push north this week. However, once the daily supply area at 0.9956-0.9921 is tagged into the action, we would hold fire on any long setups since the candles will likely turn red from thereafter.
Direction for today: As we said above, 0.9927 is an interesting Quasimodo resistance line. This is due to it connection with the underside of both the weekly supply at 0.9928 and daily supply at 0.9921. Therefore, we feel 0.99 will hold firm and force price to challenge 0.9927 sometime today, which, in our opinion, has a good chance of reversing price.
Our suggestions: Put simply, we have placed a pending sell order at 0.9926 with a stop set above daily supply at 0.9960. Ultimately, we’ll be looking for price to close beyond 0.99 from here and work its way back down to the aforementioned H4 broken Quasimodo line support. This setup also coincides beautifully with the EUR/USD (an inversely correlated market) long setup, where we advised to hunt for longs around the 1.0950 region.