Hey all, I've given this pair another look since my last analysis on USDCHF very recently hit its final target. Following that last target, we can now see that the price has been consolidating in the area between the 0.382 and 0.236 levels on the blue fibonacci retracements. From here, the price can push up through the 0.382 level to test the upper level of the channel again. The three targets outlined here are all based on important S&R levels that often coincide quite well with the fibonacci retracements on the larger time intervals.
Conversely, the price may opt to break through the 0.236 level with a goal of testing the lower wall of the descending channel. Again, we can 'safely' assume that it will hit three targets that are also derived from a combination of S&R levels and fib levels. What is interesting about this particular idea is that an "upper play" means that there is a strong potential for the formation of a potential wedge (marked by the red triangle). This would mean that the price already hit the wall of the wedge back on the 22nd of May and that the descending channel would be giving way to a falling wedge - which has implications on the long-term plans for this pair.
Upper Play
Entry: 0.97827
TP: 0.98142, 0.98534, 0.99039 (area)
SL: 0.97549
Lower Play
Entry: 0.96905
TP: 0.96791(area), 0.96286, 0.95503
SL: 0.97145
Conversely, the price may opt to break through the 0.236 level with a goal of testing the lower wall of the descending channel. Again, we can 'safely' assume that it will hit three targets that are also derived from a combination of S&R levels and fib levels. What is interesting about this particular idea is that an "upper play" means that there is a strong potential for the formation of a potential wedge (marked by the red triangle). This would mean that the price already hit the wall of the wedge back on the 22nd of May and that the descending channel would be giving way to a falling wedge - which has implications on the long-term plans for this pair.
Upper Play
Entry: 0.97827
TP: 0.98142, 0.98534, 0.99039 (area)
SL: 0.97549
Lower Play
Entry: 0.96905
TP: 0.96791(area), 0.96286, 0.95503
SL: 0.97145
Comment:
Target 1 of the Upper Play has been reached
Comment:
Fakeout; Back to consolidation
Comment:
Targets 1 and 2 of the Lower Play have been reached
Comment:
Target 3 has been hit. Idea is complete