ICmarkets

USD/CHF: Weekly outlook and review.

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
15 0 0
Weekly TF.

Last week, a small bearish pin-bar candle had formed from around the weekly decision-point level at 0.90927, does this really mean lower prices will be seen this week? Let’s take a look lower down to see what price action is telling us.

Daily TF.

A healthy-looking push down from daily supply at 0.91556-0.90985 was seen down to the daily S/D flip area at 0.90372-0.90042. If we saw a break south of this level, this would likely indicate lower prices would eventually be seen, but as we can all see this did not happen. For the time being, on this timeframe we are going to wait for a break of either of the aforementioned areas, this will give us a good indication of where price is likely headed on this timeframe.

4hr TF.

The round number 0.91 proved to be an awesome level to go short at, we were expecting price to reach the 4hr supply area at 0.91329-0.91141 just above, but unfortunately this was not seen. A push down to the 4hr S/D flip area at 0.90372-0.90148 happened on Friday, and this gives us very little information as to whether the weekly pin bar is a genuine one or not, as all we can see is price has traded directly in an area of demand (levels above).

This week we will be watching two levels on this pair (0.90215…..0.91329-0.91141), for a reaction or a break, a break would give us a short-term an indication as to where prices will likely move to, so for instance, if we see a convincing break below the 4hr decision point level at 0.90215, the weekly pin-pin is likely genuine, and we emphasize the word genuine here, we can then expect lower prices to be seen in the next week or so to around the round number 0.9, or with some effort, a push down to a 4hr decision-point area at 0.89540-0.89614.

Something else we see that is interesting on this chart, the round number 0.91 has likely been consumed of supply, so the path is likely clear up to the aforementioned 4hr supply area. If price does trade back up to this round number, expect a fakeout above it to 4hr supply, as there will be millions of traders attempting to short the round number with their stops directly located just below the 4hr supply area!!! These stops will then be buy order once triggered, which pro money will no doubt sell hard into bringing price south once again.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (0.90215) at 0.90233. The reasoning behind placing a pending buy order here is simply because this is the area on the 4hr timeframe where pro money buyers likely made the decision to break above the 4hr supply area at 0.90372-0.90148, hence the possibility there may still be unfilled buy orders lurking around this level.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the 4hr supply area (0.91329-0.91141) at 0.91113. The reason we have placed an order such as this is due its higher-timeframe location (Daily supply 0.91156-0.90985).
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.90233 (SL: 0.90117 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.91113 (SL: 0.91359 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

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