ICmarkets

USD/CHF: Bearish reversal expected very soon!

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
51 0 2
4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly TF: Price still remains trading around the weekly decision-point level at 0.90927, and at the time of writing, no attempt to break above has been seen, instead all that has formed over the past two weeks is two miniature bearish pin bars so far.

• Daily TF: Price action is currently confined within a range (Daily supply: 0.91556-0.90985 Daily S/D flip area at 0.90372-0.90042) with price now trading around the upper limits of this consolidation.

Upon price spiking (faking out) below the 4hr demand area at 0.90396-0.90516, the buyers, after a little consolidation period earlier have been in full swing pushing price right up to around the round umber 0.91.

Considering we are trading around a weekly decision-point level, and also trading around the upper limits of a daily-timeframe consolidation (for levels, see above), lower prices are naturally expected. We have two P.A confirmation orders set, one just below the round number 0.91 at 0.90960, and the second just below 4hr supply (0.91329-0.91141) at 0.91112, as we are not sure which area will react if any, so best to be on the safe side here and wait for confirmation.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (0.90215) at 0.90233. The reasoning behind placing a pending buy order here is simply because this is the area on the 4hr timeframe where pro money buyers likely made the decision to break above (what was at the time) the 4hr supply area at 0.90372-0.90148, hence the possibility there may still be unfilled buy orders lurking around this level.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 0.91 at 0.90960. The reasoning behind setting a P.A confirmation order here, and not a pending sell order, is because round number levels are prone to deep spikes, so confirmation of this level will hold is far better than getting stopped out by one of those mean spikes!
• New P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below 4hr supply (0.91329-0.91141) at 0.91112. The reasoning behind setting a P.A confirmation sell order here is because price has already visited this area once already, this likely means some of the sellers have already been consumed, so a push higher may well be seen into the 4hr supply area, or even a break above, hence the need for confirmation here.
• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.90233 (SL: 0.90117 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.90960 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 0.91112 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

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