TheBanker
Long

USD/CHF ... Same view as Morgan Stanley

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
USDCHF             has under-performed in the broad USD rally. Interest rate differentials for both 10 and 2y maturities imply USDJPY             should trade above parity.

CHF remains a risk sensitive currency but the magnitude of the moves are smaller than for the JPY. Expectations for fiscal easing in the US are helping the USD and risk appetite, which is good for this currency pair.

While EURCHF             has fallen through the beloved 1.08 level and looks for lower I suspect the downside for EURCHF             is likely to be limited with the SNB standing ready to intervene to support the lower boundary.

In any event focusing on USDCHF             as it has diverged from where relative yield differentials suggest it should be trading.

The risk to this trade is an equity market sell off or turnaround in US yields.
looks like we could see profit takers on the equity market, in turn affecting the almighty.
+1 Reply
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