Ref.: In my previous post I was too optimistic too early, with the idea of taking small long positions. I thought the Daily Slow upcross would mean a sideaway move followed by a breakout from the cloud on the 4 Hrs chart. On 4 Hrs time frame we also had a medium Tenkan/Kijun cross then + a positive divergence in the Slow indicator with higher lows. And then all gone risk off, CHF strengthenned and USDCHF collapsed. But forget about what fundamental caused the breakdown, let's obeserve what was the "problem" with the setup, that did not give enough probability for the expected outcome: 1. The two time frames were not in line - Daily Kijun was far above price then. Now it is a lot more closer! 2. Daily was . Now it started to point up, maybe a cross soon. 3. 4 Hrs Kumo (cloud) was way too thick. It was harder to break with valid signal. Now it is very thin, will be easier in case! So all in all it had a chance but not enough. That's why I always use Kijun sen + buffer as a stop. What's the situation now? Daily: px is back to previously expected range 0,8840-0,8915, Slow up, might be turning up, Kijun is closer ard 0,8920. 4 Hrs: px back above previous exp . bottom, DMI , Cloud is very thin, Tenkan crossed above Kijun (weak signal), and Chikou Span is close to px now. Only problem is Slow , which is ovebought. Strategy: Buy on Kijun pullback ard 0,8850-60 HALF unit of trading size, with stop below 0,8800, and/or Buy on confirmed Kumo and trend breakout above 0,8920. Even in case it breaks or gets close to break 0,8920, I think shortly after we will see a pull back down to 0,8875-0,8900, which will again likely be a good buying opp . for those who missed the first move.
Position was stopped, the pair kept its bearish trend.