Kumowizard
Long

USDCHF update - a possible buy soon!

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
177 6 0
First pls             let me inform all of you who follow me, that from today I will be on holiday until 13rd March, so I will publish only few times maybe until I am back.
Ref.:
USDCHF - Buy, but with less weight
In my previous post I was too optimistic too early, with the idea of taking small long positions. I thought the Daily Slow Stoch upcross would mean a sideaway move followed by a breakout from the cloud on the 4 Hrs chart. On 4 Hrs time frame we also had a medium bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross then + a positive divergence in the Slow Stoch indicator with higher lows. And then all gone risk off, CHF strengthenned and USDCHF             collapsed. But forget about what fundamental caused the breakdown, let's obeserve what was the "problem" with the setup, that did not give enough probability for the expected bullish outcome: 1. The two time frames were not in line - Daily Kijun was far above price then. Now it is a lot more closer! 2. Daily MACD was bearish . Now it started to point up, maybe a bullish cross soon. 3. 4 Hrs Kumo (cloud) was way too thick. It was harder to break with valid signal. Now it is very thin, will be easier in case! So all in all it had a chance but not enough. That's why I always use Kijun sen + buffer as a stop. What's the situation now? Daily: px             is back to previously expected range 0,8840-0,8915, Slow Stoch up, MACD might be turning up, Kijun is closer ard 0,8920. 4 Hrs: px             back above previous exp             . bottom, DMI             bullish , Cloud is very thin, Tenkan crossed above Kijun (weak bullish signal), and Chikou Span is close to px             now. Only problem is Slow Stoch , which is ovebought. Strategy: Buy on Kijun pullback ard 0,8850-60 HALF unit of trading size, with stop below 0,8800, and/or Buy on confirmed Kumo and trend breakout above 0,8920. Even in case it breaks or gets close to break 0,8920, I think shortly after we will see a pull back down to 0,8875-0,8900, which will again likely be a good buying opp             . for those who missed the first move.
USD is very weak. Close my position.
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pls check this:
USD Indx - Bought and stopped. Will 79 hold?
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Does your bullish forecast still stand?
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Hi, sorry for the late answer. Of course it is not. It was only a weak buy signal, rather a possibility for a contra trade that might have had some small chance to develope to a trend reversal. My recommendation was: "Strategy: Buy on Kijun pullback ard 0,8850-60 HALF unit of trading size, with stop below 0,8800, and/or Buy on confirmed Kumo and trend breakout above 0,8920."
Position was stopped, the pair kept its bearish trend.
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I post again here : 28 -02-2014 : Sell-off on usd/chf? We will see...
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Very nice from you to update your chart. Now follow the trend....
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