ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Long

Pending Long USD/CHF in Low 0.87XX Region

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
197 32 3
Wait for price to hit bottom trend line (around low 0.87XX region) for a possible long.
Take profit when price hits top trend line (around mid 0.90XX region).
Consider exiting if price closes below the bottom trend line.
Trade can last between 1 to 3 weeks, so be patient with this one.

I opened a new forex account to track the performance for my analysis here on trading view, you can see my entries on USD/CHF             here: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/FXWeeklyAnalysis/forexweeklyanalysis/864999.
ForceFollower
2 years ago
It may be too soon to go long yet, but I find your new-lows expectation highly logical and probable.
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Well considering the majority of retail traders went long between 0.89-0.88, I expect big money to run stops below 0.88, once they clear stops, it should go up. Regardless, the risk is fairly low if entry is at a new low.
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(This comment is basically opposite of my EUR/USD comment)
Update: Price didn't hit my target entry zone, good NFP caused USD/CHF to rise, I was hoping it would spike down first then drop but it didn't happen. Currently we have a pinbar on the daily chart but we still have 8 hours left today before the candle closes so anything can happen.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
"... spike down first then RISE" (I just copied the other comment, missed this word when changing it)
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Anyway, I woulndn't feel comfortable being short USD/CHF now. :-) But your max excursion line can still be reached, preposterous as it seems to be!
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Definitely would not short USD/CHF, it's way too low for that. However, as for price reaching there, I have hope since the March S1 pivot is at 0.86826.
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Update: Based on how markets closed (no pinbar), trade is still valid, looking for longs in the low 0.87XX region.
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Just something to consider, if EUR/USD can hit 1.4000, then that would mean USD/CHF may drop below 0.8700. The low 0.87XX region is dependent on EUR/USD being stopped in the mid 1.39XX region.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Yes, it's worth being taken into account.
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Update: I'd be EXTREMELY cautious with this pair right now, EUR/USD only just hit 1.3911. If it hits 1.4, that's 90 pips away. Subtracting 90 pips from USD/CHF is 0.8650, so this can drop well below my entry region.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Thanks for the warning. I've already taken profit on this pair and closed the position. I'll be looking for another opportunity to go short somewhere higher from here.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
I'm still planning to either long this pair or short EUR/USD with 50% account exposure, I've been waiting for USD/CHF to hit 0.87 and EUR/USD to hit 1.4 for quite some time now...
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Given what I just posted on GBP/USD and EUR/USD, if EUR/USD manages to break 1.4 and continues upwards then USD/CHF will continue going down.. for some time..
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
i will be loading USD/CHF longs the same way that I'm loading shorts on NZD/USD, 2 phases, tight range near the trend line and wide range below it.
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I opened a new forex account to track the performance for my analysis here on trading view, you can see my entries on USD/CHF here: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/FXWeeklyAnalysis/forexweeklyanalysis/864999.
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Tomorrow is a double whammy with SNB and FOMC
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
When is SNB? I can't see it in my calendar. At the time of FOMC?
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
in my calendar is on thursday
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
Yes - on Thursday, I can see it. So tomorrow at 19:00 Central European Time (FOMC) I'm going to have as few positions on as possible. The spreads will go wide and wild - that's for sure.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=mar19.2014

1:45pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
2:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Also have SNB on Thursday as well.. along with BOJ
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itaskar ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
yes,indeed, I will replace my calendar...any idea here or you will stay out?
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis itaskar
2 years ago
Well I flipped my position on USD/CHF due to EUR/USD stalling at the top... but I'm ready to load more as price drops down to S1 pivot, I have pending longs between 0.87100 and 0.86800
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Also, http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ is a more detailed calendar (they have more minor events listed) than forexfactory's calendar
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itaskar ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
thx pal
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I hope you all managed to catch some pips on this one, I exited my position on the tracking account but on my regular account, I just took some partials for 120 pips. Not sure if I would load again if price drops back down to the trend line though... I'd have to wait and see what EUR/USD does first. So for those of you who don't have a position, 'proceed with caution' if price retraces back to the original entry region.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
If EUR/USD holds the low 1.38XX region and bounces, then USD/CHF might tank downwards...
Low 1.38XX will decide if EUR/USD had a fake breakout or not
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itaskar ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I hope :) I went short at 0.8749
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Given that I'm long EUR/USD, I decided to close the bulk of my remaining long position on USD/CHF for an average gain of 90 pips. I'm still holding 20% of my position from 0.8705 though.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Considering I just took a short position, I exited the remaining 20% at 0.8840 for a total of +135 pips.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
I think USDCHF is heading for the previous lows. I expect it to stop and reverse at 8867.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
Yea, I'm targeting the low to mid 0.87XX region as well. I posted the new analysis here:
Short term Short USD/CHF 0.883X region (daily trend line)
, so use that chart to comment from now on please, this one is outdated at this point.
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