After a sharply fall with bearish divergence, price is approaching to key support level 21.235 which coincides with 0.61% fibo since the last push at 18.56 in October 2013. Good opportunity for following the progress of the pair and catch a rebound.
do you think current support will be broken? I don't know this pair's trading logic, seems do not follow usd index...
DiegoRV
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@yang.qiu.data, Yes, maybe these exotic pairs are a little bit weird to trade but I thought that after that huge drop would be an interesting pair to follow. This is the current view compare with dxy. So far has been following usd index and is close to 0.61% and level 21.23.
I don´t know if this support (21.23) will be broken or not but it was a strong resistance in the past so it shouldn´t be easy to break. I would wait to see its reaction between 21.85 / 21.23 before taking any decission. Specially if we take into account the current usd weakness due to eeuu political chaos, tax reform.... It´s just my point of view, maybe I am wrong.
yang.qiu.data
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@DiegoRV, Thx for sharing your idea ! for the weekly chart, i see macd and rsi is rising but price stucked... and DXY rebound these days, but this pair doesn't rebound. I hope this support level hold because I have 2 long position around @21.9.... Do you think we should hedge once we touch below 21.6?
yang.qiu.data
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@DiegoRV, I checked again, seems it forms a descending triangle with support level @21.5, hope not gap down next week...and I can close @22..
DiegoRV
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@yang.qiu.data, I hope that you are finally lucky with this trade.
I see what you say and coincidentally 21.50 is also 0.61% fibo level. I think that if 21.50 is broken and confirmed next retest level would be 21.23/21.20 (monthly support). So if price keeps going down to 21.23 maybe hegde wouldn´t be a bad idea.
Right now price is consolidating and if you look 4H timeframe there is a potential retest area at 21.87 and have just respected short-term demand zone.
@DiegoRV, shoot up and down like dollar index.. lots of drama lol. I have tp around @22, hope to test the upper triangle and hegde just 20pips below 21.6, see if it works. Will watch 21.87 for sure!
yang.qiu.data
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@DiegoRV, I'm doomed.... see the bearish flag of DX and H&S pattern too late....I didn't close my buy when it top... hope 21.50 hold, otherwise i hedge blow 21.48 but equity only has 30% left than...
DiegoRV
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@yang.qiu.data, Certainly tricky scenario :S This is my current view. I hope it is useful for you somehow. The thing is 21.50 is holding and stoch oversold but on the other hand there is is a strong bearish trend, plus recent worries about eeuu economy. 50% chance... I wish there was a pull back for you.
yang.qiu.data
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@DiegoRV, hard decisioin....wait or hedge... You recommand if by chance retesting 21.6 area hedge? I think tommorw us data will be good to get a reverse, but account equity problem. should have cut the loss when its small and reenter. too greedy
DiegoRV
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@yang.qiu.data, Yeah cut the loss would have been great but you know... these things happens.
Speaking about that theoretical case (who knows the future..):
I think that if price retest 21.60 and this is level is rejected hedge would be an option as maybe price will go again to 21.50 or consolidate in that range. If price is above 21.60 and confirmed perhaps would have probability of pullback to higher levels.