USDDKK (4H) Backtest : 76% Win rate (19.75 R), 82% non-losers!
Detailed backtest results
- prnt.sc/vb21h2
- Win/Loss ratio : 433%
- Non losers : 82%
- Net R : 19.75 R across 17 trades
- Avg R / winner = 1.52
- Avg R / trade = 1.16
Icons on the chart
- Thumbs up : Trade was a win
- Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
- Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
- Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers
- Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading
Trade qualifiers
- $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken)
- Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss
How to read icons on chart?
- Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY
- Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY
- Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue)
- Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss
- Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction)
Indicators at bottom of chart
1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines)
2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY
3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving
Strategy
Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY
AND
Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders
AND
Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss
AND
Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation
Risk management
1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free
2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even
3) Close trade at 3R
4) Winner = 1.75R
Variables
Avg winner = 1.75R
PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart!
PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.
- prnt.sc/vb21h2
- Win/Loss ratio : 433%
- Non losers : 82%
- Net R : 19.75 R across 17 trades
- Avg R / winner = 1.52
- Avg R / trade = 1.16
Icons on the chart
- Thumbs up : Trade was a win
- Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
- Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
- Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers
- Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading
Trade qualifiers
- $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken)
- Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss
How to read icons on chart?
- Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY
- Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY
- Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue)
- Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss
- Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction)
Indicators at bottom of chart
1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines)
2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY
3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving
Strategy
Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY
AND
Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders
AND
Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss
AND
Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation
Risk management
1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free
2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even
3) Close trade at 3R
4) Winner = 1.75R
Variables
Avg winner = 1.75R
PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart!
PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.