Trading Plan for the Coming Week
You know each pair consists of 2 currencies. If you are going to trade a pair, you should know how powerful each currency is depending on the time frame you use for trading. If both currencies moving in the same direction, then you should not trade that pair. For example, if both EUR and USD are getting weaker then trading that pair is not a good idea where you can find other currencies that are moving opposite each other.
Here is an analysis of currencies' strength for the coming week using Weighted Averages, ONLY.
Objective: Find any 2 currencies that are moving opposite each other. For example, I found a few, like CADCHFand AUDCHF . Would you be able to find more?
CHF (Strongly )
On D1, CHF Weighted Average broke the channel median and now is trading below it. I am on CHF.
But to trade CHF on the side I want to see the triangular breaks first
NZD (Strongly )
I am on NZD too. See D1. It acts like CHF
I think NZD is ready to trade on the Short side on Monday as on Hourly TF it already did the hard work of breaking the most recent support and pulling back off it and now it has enough room going lower.
JPY ( )
I like YEN on the Short side but it seems on Thursday and Friday the move slightly exhausted on D1.
But see the beautiful clean channel on 1H TF. It just visited the lower band of the channel, made and formation and constantly touched the upper band of the and if on Monday it breaks the upper band of the YEN will remain in the coming week. What is confusing is that Stocks is showing a break to the topside which means YEN weakness! Let’s see…
CAD ( )
CAD has been moving slower than a snail in 2019. Trading in a very narrow range but still on D1.
Right now is resting below the resistance.
On hourly it reached the resistance too. I exited my EURCAD Short and USDCAD on Friday only because of the following chart. USDCAD is exhausted on the move too which adds up to this.
AUD ( )
Since mid-August, AUD has been trying to bounce and it really has a tough job to break all these resistance. Any move higher will be limited and breaking lower needs a strong motivator. Overall AUD has been for the last 3 months as it reached support in AUG.
EUR ( )
This pair has the least among all Currencies. That means if you are going to trade any EURO pair you should have less focus on this one. Let’s say if you trade EURGBP , studying EUR does not help you too much as EUR on average going higher or lower for 0.2% (based on my experience) where Sterling can rise or fall by 2% in one single day.
On D1 it is and made a few attempts to bounce off the median and it failed.
Watch this clear break lower on 1H that happened on Friday, mainly because of CAD and AUD rose higher.
USD ( )
The reason for being on USD is because it broke the median and now is heading back to this and a pullback expected. What the Median and see how nicely it acted as for the last a few months.
On hourly as can be seen still USD has some room to higher but then it faces layers of resistance.
Last is Sterling as trading any Sterling pair is like gambling ;)
On D1, it reached to the very near of resistance and pulled back, but the pullback was not that sharp. That means buyers are still interested in buying this market.
On the hourly, Sterling made a megaphone pattern and ever since it reached the resistance it made a formation. I like Sterling Long but technical suggests it is . The currency is heavily news related so I would just look at very short TFs for this currency to find the direction of the move.
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Have a great weekend friends,
It is ready to break the wedge formation. That means Long XXXCHF is most likely to be the winner...
I think I speak for everyone how much we appreciate the time taken for your analysis.
I've spent many months demo account and now trading live, support and resistance and doing well I look at entries in 4hr or 6 hour with daily confirmation.
I've turned 1,000 into 2,200 but i still feels its been luck.
I've been trading reversals wheb price action is far away from the median.
I found your charts really fascinating and I'm trying to understand what you've done adding the currencies together? Is there a name for doing this ?
I've never seen this before.
Example all the chf currencies pairs but it's one chart ?
If it's several currencies in one what does the price represent ?
Happy if you reply here or privately
I do agree on CAD being bullish, my indicator paints it above all other currencies in intensity of gain and strength, it even had a pullback yesterday so we can expect even more upside movement soon.
I am bullish on JPY and USD, sadly, as you pointed we can still go a little higher for the next week, but I am not so sure about longer term, but for now I might take more care with these pairs.
NZD I am kind of neutral to bearish but then again often NZD and AUD move a bit together due to their high correlation, so I'm not too sure if I'll even trade it next week unless something big happens.
AUD is another currency I am looking kinda sideways, I feel somewhat bearish for the next week, but as you pointed we have some support pretty close... so I don't know, guess I'll wait to see if support or resistance is broken and then join that side.
GBP, EUR, CHF are big bears for me, just going to wait for some entry point to sell.
Cheers mate and as always thanks for the ideas!
It enters perfectly at the right time but when exiting I still have some issues as it closes winning trades too early.
Regarding currencies, I agree with all but for YEN I have to say in the short term it is bullish but watch SPX500. If it breaks higher it puts pressure on YEN. Agree with others.
I have the same issue with the exits right now, sold EURCAD almost perfectly yesterday but got out too early, and yes, it is very precise, we use slightly different formulas, but the core of weighted averages is indeed very good on Forex.
Have spent some time comparing with my views. And after reading your remarks several times- I come to a conclusion that there is too much uncertainty with GBP, JPY, there are limited gains remaining with CAD. NZD and USD are not ready for recovery yet.
So we are left with EUR, CHF and AUD as they are offering 2 opposing currency pairs. Eur/Aud for Sell, Aud/Chf for buy. Aud/CHF does not look very interesting for very small moves and I believe I would stick with Eur/Aud next week after allowing to retrace a bit up and sell then.
There is too little clarity for me on other pairs (except Eur/USD waiting to sell at 1.12 and 1.125 towards 1.09)
Have a nice Sunday tomorrow.