GBPUSD: Fighting my bias

FX_IDC:USDGBP   U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling
I don't want to long the dollar right now, and many of my trades are centered around strength of commodities , oil             , equities, so a dollar long, pretty much would rain on my parade.
Now, I also don't want to be exposed to strongly correlated trades only, and not diversify, and I definitely don't want to trade with blinders on, and avoid taking good trades due to my personal biases, whatever they might be.

So, I play Devil's advocate for a bit here, and try to decipher the GBPUSD             chart.
I'm looking at the GBPUSD             and inverted GBPUSD             weekly chart here. It appears like relative strength has been bad for the Pound and recent news about the Brexit 'implementation' have hurt Pound bulls considerably, making the bullish technical setups we had fail.

I see we have a weekly time at mode signal in play, a weekly range expansion bar, and a huge downside (or upside target in the case of the inverted Pound chart).

I'm sure this is a stupid trade, so probably, it a good one to take.
What are your thoughts? Leave your comments behind.

Good luck if you follow my idea.


Ivan Labrie.
Comment: Despite my gut feeling, this trade is in profit. Almost the same distance as my stop now, and almost no drawdown from entry. This is why it's good to check inverted charts, and asess if you have a bias, or a strong feeling regarding something...or if you'd mock someone for taking a trade. That trade is probably going to work, and you'll be sorry if you mocked it.

Bam, nailed it. Holding, risk free...already closed half anyway.
Comment: Before this, OANDA and FXCM data showed 85% longs in GBPUSD. :/
Comment: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/pound-rally-didn-t-last-long-as-brexit-concern-sparks-selling
Comment: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/pound-plunges-6-1-percent-in-biggest-drop-since-brexit-result
Comment: Target: 1.11984
Comment: I added a 0.5% risk entry short here, stop 1.26155, last: 1.23652
Trade closed manually: Covered for now at Exit GBPUSD short - 1.23858
Comment: Always good to go against your gut.
Nice call!!
+1 Reply
Thanks, I'm a bit sad since I know of people who lost all their funds. It's a lesson to remember, people need to size trades correctly, and learn more about fundamentals and correct money management before risking money in the markets.
If anyone lost money on this, I'm sorry to hear, let it be a wake up call.
+1 Reply
And what do you think for now?
I'm holding the short, there's serious fundamental and technical damage in the Pound.
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