Reduce USD shorts, not just against HUF, but ag. EM in general!
- Ichimoku is bearish, but
- Heikin-Ashi quantification tool haDelta+ shows some early positive divergence: higher low vs lower low in price
- EWO is bearish, but started to tick up in last two days, it may also show positive divergence compared to price.
- Possible bullish wedge isdeveloping
- Price is also very far below the weekly Kijun Sen, which is at 274 now. From time to time market needs consolidation or a bounce towards this longer term equilibrium level.
I think the USD/EM and USD/CEE trades are getting close to their local bottom.
Regarding USDHUF you also have to keep in mind that holding this position has a negative cost carry of annual 1,25 %. National Bank of Hungary is also quite dovish, and wants to see a weaker HUF (against EUR mainly). Until the end of 2017 I can immagine a retest to 265-271 zone.
This post is NOT a call for a long USDHUF trade, as for that chart doesn't qualify. The idea is to close/reduce USDHUF shorts, and probably USD/EM shorts in general.
- Heikin-Ashi quantification tool haDelta+ shows some early positive divergence: higher low vs lower low in price
- EWO is bearish, but started to tick up in last two days, it may also show positive divergence compared to price.
- Possible bullish wedge isdeveloping
- Price is also very far below the weekly Kijun Sen, which is at 274 now. From time to time market needs consolidation or a bounce towards this longer term equilibrium level.
I think the USD/EM and USD/CEE trades are getting close to their local bottom.
Regarding USDHUF you also have to keep in mind that holding this position has a negative cost carry of annual 1,25 %. National Bank of Hungary is also quite dovish, and wants to see a weaker HUF (against EUR mainly). Until the end of 2017 I can immagine a retest to 265-271 zone.
This post is NOT a call for a long USDHUF trade, as for that chart doesn't qualify. The idea is to close/reduce USDHUF shorts, and probably USD/EM shorts in general.