Why I think a pull back is possible? Slow giving a sell signal soon, with turning again. Also DMI converging a bit with decreasing a bit. There is better chance for USDHUF to build some local wave top here.
4 Hrs: Double top? Chikou Span hits candles, further break up is getting unlikely. It will either move sideaway 236,50-238 for a while, or with next attempt will break the 100 and will attack the Cloud. What can not go up, will more likely come down, at least a bit. Support is 232-232,50, which is appr. in line with Daily Kijun Sen too.
I try to open some short in between 236,80-237,50, but only small, as on the other hand fundamentally there's not much what could support HUF really in short-medium term. The whole trade will rather depend on the general USD correction, than on local HUF news.
The case is same with equities. And with the VIX index.
Can you immagine that SP500 drops 8-10 % in one or two days? 10 % is like from 1990 to ard 1800! That would scare everybody, and that you can not even call a collapse! Look at the VIX. Moved from 13 to only 18 on back of mild -4,5 % correction of the SP500 (last time from 1990 to 1900). This move in VIX means if you owned only 1 futures contract, which is very very small in notional, that made you 5000 USD profit. Now look at the VIX where it has gone in 2008. It was above 40!
The big game has been selling volatility (short VXX for example) for more than two years now. VIX never really managed to move and stay above 20. This trade has become extremely crowded by now! And the "FED put" won't be there any more.
Volatility will blow up, and that will cause massive selloff in equities too. It's just a matter of time.