Daily: the trend is bullish, Ichimoku components support the trend, with mentionning Chikou Span which may hit the Price wall soon unless we see a further momentum push Price higher within next 5-6 days. Why I think a pull back is possible? Slow Stoch giving a sell signal soon, with MACD turning bearish again. Also DMI converging a bit with ADX decreasing a bit. There is better chance for USDHUF to build some local wave top here.
4 Hrs: Double top? Chikou Span hits candles, further break up is getting unlikely. It will either move sideaway 236,50-238 for a while, or with next attempt will break the 100 WMA and will attack the Cloud. What can not go up, will more likely come down, at least a bit. Support is 232-232,50, which is appr. in line with Daily Kijun Sen too.
I try to open some short in between 236,80-237,50, but only small, as on the other hand fundamentally there's not much what could support HUF really in short-medium term. The whole trade will rather depend on the general USD correction, than on local HUF news.
Comments
Kumowizard
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Idea cancelled due to Ukraine-Russia tension... better not to touch.
Recluse82
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but still overbought, mainly on w1 tf
Kumowizard
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It is really. But in extraordinary times volatility will become extraordinary too, and you can see such big blow ups you can not even believe now. Hungary has a big problem: the NBH fckd it up totally, and by the time they admit, it will by too late. No protection on the HUF now. Swap points collapsed, and now even the NBH is received on rates by I think more than 200 bn HUF notional against the banking sector. That means they can intervene until they have reserves, but they will be very reluctant to hike rates, as then they are fckd too. They boxed themselves into a corner. I tell you, soon Hungary will suffer a massive Hedge Fund attack against the HUF. And you know the Hedge Funds will not attack the Central Bank in fact, but the international real money investors, who are holding the local bonds, with an unhedged FX exposure.
The case is same with equities. And with the VIX index.
Can you immagine that SP500 drops 8-10 % in one or two days? 10 % is like from 1990 to ard 1800! That would scare everybody, and that you can not even call a collapse! Look at the VIX. Moved from 13 to only 18 on back of mild -4,5 % correction of the SP500 (last time from 1990 to 1900). This move in VIX means if you owned only 1 futures contract, which is very very small in notional, that made you 5000 USD profit. Now look at the VIX where it has gone in 2008. It was above 40!
The big game has been selling volatility (short VXX for example) for more than two years now. VIX never really managed to move and stay above 20. This trade has become extremely crowded by now! And the "FED put" won't be there any more.
Volatility will blow up, and that will cause massive selloff in equities too. It's just a matter of time.