Kumowizard

USDHUF - Looks topish a bit, flag break soon

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Daily: Long term Ichimoku setup is bullish . But it has printed a Hangin Man and a Doji in last two days. It can be either a further bullish flag building, or a confirming signal that the top is building here ard 235-236 for now. Slow Sotch is bearish , MACD gave a sell signal. Today Hungary's GDP was higher than expected. (3,9 % vs 3,5 % exp             .)
Equilibrium price is 229,50-230. USDHUF             may have a pull back down to the trendline or to the equilibrium support level .

4 Hrs: Price got stuck in a tight triangle, and trading in the Kumo (consolidation). Upper break would be above 235,30, lower break below 233,70. Chikou Span is at Price, and ADX dropped below 20, with tight DMI             lines. All these tell us undecision and consolidation.

The flag break can happen in any directions, with almot 50-50 % chance. However given the daily MACD and Slow Stoch , the chance of a dip (correction) maybe a bit higher.

If you don't have any position in USDHUF             , it is not wise to play the upper break and go long, as risk-reard after such a rally is not the best. However for a swing short it can be good below 233,70, with 230-231 tgt             . Also if you have longs still, 233,70 is the level to watch for final take profit.
H&S pattern is complete on H4, waiting for breaking down
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I am not a real fan of candle form patterns, as those give you signals very late. However very useful to provide support and confirmation for a position or idea. Indeed, it is a HS. It's neckline measured tgt is 230. That is also the Key bullish support on Daily chart.
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Recluse82 Kumowizard
exactly, im gonna close my short at 230
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Probably a good idea. I'd place some bids myself even above 230 a bit.
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The major trend is still bearish HUF.
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Recluse82 Kumowizard
i know, i am a hungarian! overall target could be 250-300
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the chart is not looking good :-)
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Nope. It looks really sht. I cut my latest shorts already both in USDHUF and EURHUF. HUF trades like sht. It can not get any smaller strength even in the biggest global risk-on. Actually we shouldn't be surprised on this. There is a Central Bank which thinks Hungary's base rate has to be below Poland's, Australia's