Kumowizard

USDHUF - Looks topish a bit, flag break soon

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Daily: Long term Ichimoku setup is bullish . But it has printed a Hangin Man and a Doji in last two days. It can be either a further bullish flag building, or a confirming signal that the top is building here ard             235-236 for now. Slow Sotch is bearish , MACD gave a sell signal. Today Hungary's GDP was higher than expected. (3,9 % vs 3,5 % exp             .)
Equilibrium price is 229,50-230. USDHUF             may have a pull back down to the trendline or to the equilibrium support level .

4 Hrs: Price got stuck in a tight triangle, and trading in the Kumo (consolidation). Upper break would be above 235,30, lower break below 233,70. Chikou Span is at Price, and ADX dropped below 20, with tight DMI lines. All these tell us undecision and consolidation.

The flag break can happen in any directions, with almot 50-50 % chance. However given the daily MACD and Slow Stoch , the chance of a dip (correction) maybe a bit higher.

If you don't have any position in USDHUF             , it is not wise to play the upper break and go long, as risk-reard after such a rally is not the best. However for a swing short it can be good below 233,70, with 230-231 tgt             . Also if you have longs still, 233,70 is the level to watch for final take profit.
the chart is not looking good :-)
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Nope. It looks really sht. I cut my latest shorts already both in USDHUF and EURHUF. HUF trades like sht. It can not get any smaller strength even in the biggest global risk-on. Actually we shouldn't be surprised on this. There is a Central Bank which thinks Hungary's base rate has to be below Poland's, Australia's, etc., the offer IRS into the mkt during each bond auctions way below mkt rates, they pump the system with liquidity, and so on. Maybe they need to blow a bubble on the real estate mkt... at least their growing real estate portfolio can be valuated higher :-D. Btw if you own HUF, the only reasonable investment in Hungary is now real estate. Still an undervalued mkt.
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