The pair moved in a range of 81.00-81.83 during last week. However, the Monthly candle confirms the trend reversal. We can safely assume that the top at 83.10-83.30 is expected to hold for the current month and possibly till the year end. The closer resistance at 81.80 itself is likely to see good amount of supply. We are witnessing demand driven by lower crude and outstanding unhedged exposure getting covered. The ultimate projection for the down move is 79.20 which might take a couple of weeks. The indications are that the currency is expected to consolidate between 80.70 & 82.70. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.
A few more observations:
A few more observations:
- In the previous blogs the comparative analysis of 2018 & current scenario was discussed and suggested a possible correction in Nov 22 which is in progress. We saw nearly a 4 big figure correction in 2018. If the same were to repeat, we may see 79.20 soon.
The long term trend line till at 83.10-83.30 levels holds for now and we are likely to see a consolidation between 79-82
We may not see a runaway in DXY. The 105-106 range is yet another crucial price point and we may see further fall to 102.
The full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair
Slow paced correction is a cause of concern as we have seen sudden sharp moves after a long periods of still/stale moves
The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-82.70
The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.