DX (Dollar Index) – Can it spill out the beans for India Nifty

FX_IDC:USDINR   U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
80 0 9
DX ( Dollar Index             ) – Can it spill out the beans for India Nifty             .

(This technical story connects you to GBPUSD-cable, USDINR             & India Nifty             ).

Since 2011 March, DX             has travelled in an impulsive manner till March 2015 & since March 2015—it has been travelling into consolidation mode & appears to be shaping out a triangle pattern who’s C-leg is done.
So, any movement above 95.50- could show us the way that D-leg has started & shall travel atleast 98—98.50 where it shall complete 61.8% of the B-leg.
Now, if you flip this triangle –you will realise that we have similar pattern in GBPUSD             (Cable) –both are shaping out triangles where GBPUSD             is about start d-leg in downside direction which will be confirmed once pair moves below 1.42979

DX & USDINR             Connection-
As DX             is shaping out a triangle & getting support of rising trendline & about to start d-leg of the triangle atleast for targets 98—98.50 …similarly USDINR             is taking support of rising trendline & we could see another upside leg if 65.95 is intact on closing basis & should not fall below rising channel in that case we can look out for 68-68.50’s zone as target.

DX & India Nifty             Connection- Why One should be cautious at current levels:
India Nifty             has travelled quiet impulsively since 6825 to 7980- technically 7980 has been the resistance in early Jan 2016 & Nifty             broke 1000 points—same resistance was seen in Dec 2015 as well & what a coincidence –we touched 7980 just recently in 18—22nd April             2016 week as well- giving us triple top formation which suggest that we should avoid taking long positions & should wait for clear signals. Clear bullish direction will arise when Nifty             closes above 7980 & most important mark 8000 (7515 is key support level )
It looks like we are done with 5 waves upside since 6825 but yes we still don’t have any confirmation of going shorts and In coming days we should be careful & keep a watch on Dollar Index- which is looking bullish
Now, If Dollar Index             starts moving above 95.50---probably it can cause pain to Indian equities & spill out the beans for the same.
Abhishek             H.Singh,CMT
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
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