USDJPY and the US-Dollar basket are showing signs of weakening of their trends. I show why I think so, and I'm happy to hear of a different perspective based on the charts. Late last week I saw some unusual Yen strength which was masked by base currencies doing other things.
I was surprised that Wall Street was heading north but Yen quoted pairs did not rock north with any power. In fact CADJPY and EURJPY were moving relatively south. That may be have been contributed to by their base rates. Nonetheless it was surprising. Even NZDJPY didn't rock far north as I expected for the sort of bullish moves I saw on Wall street.
What could be the impacts of a fall in US-Dollar strength? 1. US stock markets get more buoyant. 2. Commodities and metals get a lift north. 3. Currency pairs with a base of US-Dollar go south. Those quoted on US-Dollar go north.
Please note carefully that the above are not predictions - only general price pressure, as there are so many other things that affect these markets. Nothing said in this post is a recommendation to take a position or change positions if in a live market.
@Captain_Walker, I'm glad we think the same way. But I would describe what is worrying about the theory now. I might have bought the fracture from the wrong place. The second structure may be on its way. If so, then we are now in an inverse fractal structure. I know it's not an analysis if both directions can happen. But not only I'm insecure but the whole market. That is why the exchange rate has formed a broad sideways band. Exiting this will determine the further direction. In my opinion.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, 'Same' is different to 'similar'. ;) Thankfully I don't have to contend with weekly time frames. That's why I use them only for catching key turning points, then contract down on a smaller time frame, if price moves in my favoured direction. The problem is the EURO as well - if it tanks along with the US-Dollar price of EURUSD could just level off for weeks. This is of course the reason why currency pairs are so difficult. I avoid most of that stuff by just finding a trend, I can exploit.
In the figure I analyzed the fractal structure of EURUSD. If this structure is built, according to what you say, there are 1,3181 target prices.