My I internet was down and I also had to rewrite this over again. Now, it is shortened.
I've been in this trade for about one month now. It is hard to do as many gamble and twittle their fingers and push buy and sell buttons with every wind of momentum, but TRUE trend that last are created by economic-fundamental data; the same with reversals. I intend to align myself with the big banks.
The Fed remains hawkish, so I remain hawkish: the US Fed's Mester said, "Inflation will gradually increase towards 2 percent target" and that "sometimes being prudent means INCREASING rates."
Bullish Catalysts For Tommorrow:
2:35am New time - BOJ Kuroda Speaks (Desiring that he remain
8:30am New Time - USA Final GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims (Desiring that the data is )
4pm New Time - Fed chair Yellen Speaks (Desiring that she remains )
I go forward with an open mind, looking for further evidence for the case of holding the dollar!
Today's September 29, 2016 data releases for Japan supports our case to hold the dollar and sell the Japanese Yen, and it gives us economic-fundamental EVIDENCE that Japan will have to lower rates even further to save their economy:
Japan Household Spending y/y = -4.6%
Tokyo Core CPI y/y = -0.5%
Japan National Core CPI y/y = -0.5%
Japan Unemployment Rate = 3.1%
So, I am still holding on to USDJPY for the long haul.
Risks: global calamity or some bad news in the world has bed causing people to flee to Japan as a safe haven. So, those shocks will hurt how USDJPY will appreciate over time.
What has me a little concerned is that the GDP coming out won't reflect this months amazing retail sales data for the US economy. Retail sales does play a big chuck of the GDP economic pie. And last month, retail sales were -0.2%, so this may effect the GDP; however, going forward, we know that we have investment demand, and with the US election coming up (given that Hillary Clinton stands a chance at winning), I remain confident in the dollar, and I believe that a pullback will cause investors to buy at falling and bargain prices.
So, I will have to read the data coming out and break down the GDP to make sense of it all, and then make an informed decision about it, taking into account our quarterly view. We may in the end just ignore any bad number and look at other economic points that are good for the GDP a month or two from nice, like this months retail sales.
Going in with an open mind! Happy Halloween!