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$USD vs. $JPY: High-Prob. Set-Up; Bearish M15 Frame | #forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Friends,

An unusually short-term consideration here, as we are witnessing the nascence of a Wolfe Wave/Geo. Point-5' completed, suggesting a very high probability hit at the FIRST highlighted zone.

Subsequent levels represent vanishing probabilities.




The prior chart remains bearish in its M/T outlook - See it here:

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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05 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Watch for the possibility of a higher Geo shaping up.

As indicated before, the "Off-Set Rule'' allowed us to determine the HIGHEST probability target, which was defined and hit in the prior M15 chart (see above). This is a particularly important consideration, since the conventional Wolfe Wave method failed to see its price validate the WW pattern's 1-4 Line (which is the only reason for the Wolfe Wave t exist in the first place). In contrast, the Off-Set Rule of the Geo was able to complete its entire cycle as price hit the price level corresponding to Point-4 of the Geo.

At this point, price rose higher, breaking through a bearish entrenchment. This suggests that M15 activity is ceding to higher timeframe plans, assuming as is typically the rule that the higher the timeframe, the better funded the players, and thus the greater control that higher-ranked group gains over price.

A similar reasoning occurs with any pattern play. In this case, we are seeing that the Geo reversed after completing its cycle at the level of point-4 of the smaller Geo, and that a larger pattern is appearing, as follows:





What the trader needs to do is to remain aware of any higher-up levels of activities, by simply approaching all charts from a top-down approach - I typically use several frames above, such as consulting the DAILY when considering a trade at the H4 or H1 level (a 4-fold amplification of the timeframe of interest is what i consider, which is also part of the rule I have applied in my Predictive/Forecasting Model).

So, here is a larger pattern, probably coming to completion as drawn, although it is never quite certain when elements of the geometry are distorted. A form of distortion here has to do with the unusual placement of Point-4. Applying the Geo-Anchor rule, Point-4 is reasonably placed, but it is at a much higher level than it would have been using the Wolfe Wave methodology. When such a discrepancy occurs, I take note and wait for better formations to come through.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
05 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Looking at it alternatively, here is a confluence of former 1-3 Line and current 1-3 Line, meeting up at this potential Point-5:





David Alcindor
+1 Reply
04 JUN 215 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDJPY hit Geo target per Off-Set Rule; Missed Wolfe Wave target; Remains bearish; Eyes overhead bear trench:


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David Alcindor

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TECH-NOTE:

This trade perfectly illustrates the subtle difference between Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave pattern and the Geo, as in this case, the highest probability target was defined relative to the price level corresponding to Point-4, and not based on the 1-4 Line, which is the Wolfe Wave's unique target.

By applying the Geo's Off-Set Rule, we are simply acknowledging a geoetric compensation whereby a placement of Point-5 at a significantly exotic place (typically at the validation of the 2-4 Line translated off of Point-3, thus defining Point-5-prime) would allow for a more proximate target, relative to what it would have been had rice reversed from the conventional Point-5 of the Wolfe Wave.

This is really not a break-through discovery, but a mere refinement of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave pattern, which I would differentiate simply by calling this the "Geo", as I have done so far.

Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Spot on!
Reply
Cna you re-port with a wave count (showing) 5'?
+1 Reply
Hi David. I'm sure you have explained it before, but could I ask what the PINK arrow indicates?

Thank you

Iefan
+1 Reply
Hello, @iefan - The arrow is simply to highlight a probable impact on price from the time I released the signal. I had expected that following price cutting through the tip of the geometry, it would possibly tend to rise and validate the under-side of the geometry along its 2-4 Line. This is a very common occurrence that leads to a conservative entry strategy, whereby the late comer would sometime receive a market signal by way of this validation - It does not occur all the time, but when it does, it is a generous -albeit rare - sign from the market that it is ready to move forcefully to the direction facing the 2-4 Line side of the geometry.

David
+1 Reply
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