Ladies and gentlemen, in our previous XAGUSD analysis, the long trigger we discussed did get activated and followed through as expected, offering a clean example of how structure and timing can align.
With that in mind, and as we approach the end of the year, if you're looking for another market with clear levels, tradable volatility, and a well-defined R/R, USDJPY is worth analyzing closely before Christmas.
I’m Skeptic, founder of Skeptic Lab. If you want to elevate your long-term performance through genuine psychology, data-driven insights, and proven strategies, you’ve landed in the right spot.
Let’s kick off with the daily timeframe: After peaking at 157.567, it dove into a time-based correction. We printed lower highs in this pullback, but those highs couldn't crack the prior support at 154.539—so buyer strength is still alive and kicking, even mid-correction. This screams that if the bearish secondary trend wraps up, buyers could dominate the next uptrend wave hard: sellers are burned out, and the buyers who scooped up that liquidity and seller exhaustion? They'll rocket prices higher in the follow-up leg.
On the economic front, the biggest news for JPY drops Friday: the rate decision. Markets are almost locked in on the Bank of Japan hiking rates again. At first glance, you might think "sweet, JPY strength = USDJPY dump," but it's not that simple. The snag? Japan's government is pushing "now's not the time for belt-tightening—we need more stimulus," while the central bank counters with "inflation's real, rates gotta rise." This clash is spiking market fear.
What's the fallout?
Investors are dumping Japanese bonds en masse.
Yields on those bonds have skyrocketed to their highest since 2007 (hitting an 18-year peak).
Meanwhile, the Yen keeps weakening.
This uncertainty could keep pounding the JPY even more—which lines up perfectly with the technicals we're seeing.
Now, drop to the 1H timeframe to hunt that trigger: After busting the downtrend line, we've formed higher highs and higher lows. If resistance at 155.605 cracks, that's our green light to go long. But if price dumps below 155.352 before the break, trigger's off—we'll scout a fresh one, and I'll update right here under this idea, 'cause that's my duty :)
For extra confirmation, tap RSI: A break above 68.27 could seal the deal (note: overbought levels can flex 5% around 70 based on market vibes—right now, reactions make 68.27 the key spot over 70).
Dial your targets by R/R: First up, resistance at 156.093, then the daily Resistance at 156.933.
Thanks for tuning into this idea—if it clicked for you, I'd appreciate a boost to keep the energy rolling and follow to grow our community. If there's a specific symbol you want analyzed, drop it in the comments. 🩵
Now get outta here.
With that in mind, and as we approach the end of the year, if you're looking for another market with clear levels, tradable volatility, and a well-defined R/R, USDJPY is worth analyzing closely before Christmas.
I’m Skeptic, founder of Skeptic Lab. If you want to elevate your long-term performance through genuine psychology, data-driven insights, and proven strategies, you’ve landed in the right spot.
Let’s kick off with the daily timeframe: After peaking at 157.567, it dove into a time-based correction. We printed lower highs in this pullback, but those highs couldn't crack the prior support at 154.539—so buyer strength is still alive and kicking, even mid-correction. This screams that if the bearish secondary trend wraps up, buyers could dominate the next uptrend wave hard: sellers are burned out, and the buyers who scooped up that liquidity and seller exhaustion? They'll rocket prices higher in the follow-up leg.
On the economic front, the biggest news for JPY drops Friday: the rate decision. Markets are almost locked in on the Bank of Japan hiking rates again. At first glance, you might think "sweet, JPY strength = USDJPY dump," but it's not that simple. The snag? Japan's government is pushing "now's not the time for belt-tightening—we need more stimulus," while the central bank counters with "inflation's real, rates gotta rise." This clash is spiking market fear.
What's the fallout?
Investors are dumping Japanese bonds en masse.
Yields on those bonds have skyrocketed to their highest since 2007 (hitting an 18-year peak).
Meanwhile, the Yen keeps weakening.
This uncertainty could keep pounding the JPY even more—which lines up perfectly with the technicals we're seeing.
Now, drop to the 1H timeframe to hunt that trigger: After busting the downtrend line, we've formed higher highs and higher lows. If resistance at 155.605 cracks, that's our green light to go long. But if price dumps below 155.352 before the break, trigger's off—we'll scout a fresh one, and I'll update right here under this idea, 'cause that's my duty :)
For extra confirmation, tap RSI: A break above 68.27 could seal the deal (note: overbought levels can flex 5% around 70 based on market vibes—right now, reactions make 68.27 the key spot over 70).
Dial your targets by R/R: First up, resistance at 156.093, then the daily Resistance at 156.933.
Thanks for tuning into this idea—if it clicked for you, I'd appreciate a boost to keep the energy rolling and follow to grow our community. If there's a specific symbol you want analyzed, drop it in the comments. 🩵
Now get outta here.
Trade closed: target reached
Ladies and gentlemen, after breaking and falling the trigger at 155.605, we've clocked roughly 215 pips on USDJPY—likely sitting on an R/R north of 5, maybe even 10. Lock in profits here, no second thoughts. We've hit the major daily resistance, and a correction from this spot is highly probable. + JPYX has also slammed into its monthly support floor.So definitely take profits—don't even dream of heroic holds. 🎄 Merry Christmas :) 🩵
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.