With the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng starting off the week in the red, I expect at least a moderate selloff in NY tomorrow. The SP futures are currently in the red as well so I am fairly confident in shorting UJ with the expectation for capital to flow into yen seeking a safe haven currency for now.
*I tried shorting it as I planned in my previous idea for a short setup on UJ but was stopped out. The price action looks more favorable this time. Either way I see it as a sound technical and fundamental trade until the economic climates change.
based on 4H Ichimoku setup you should be looking for buy signals only in USDJPY :-)
However if you look at the daily Ichimoku, then you have to look for sell signals. Bit tricky, as the two time frames do not coincide.
So basically I agree that short USDJPY still has higher probability to work well, but as you see on both time frames the key breakdown level (stop sell entry) is somewhere around 120,30, while the possible limit sell area is around 122,50 (in case you get some sell signal there)
KaizenTrader
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Very true, waiting for 122.50 would be a much better confirmation for a short. As of now, it's kind of hovering at 121 despite equities falling everywhere. Definitely a tricky situation.
Kumowizard
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At the end I decided to open some shorts above 121. As you see 120,30 is broken too. I just posted a setup about a firm Heikin Ashi sell signal. Bear returns.
Killy_Mel
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nice) I traded it short today but bailed out - didnt go.. so on the sidelines for now
KaizenTrader
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Don't blame you, staying on the sidelines is a smart thing to do without further confirmation.
Killy_Mel
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absolutely)
Kumowizard
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Probably you use too tight stop, or too big position which makes you stressed when it is not moving into your way or moves against you. There are additional problems with this: if you take the trade off, then a) you questionned your system's signal or your abilities, b) when it finally moves into the right direction, and you are not in the trade, it makes you more frustrated.
This used to be a very difficult mental deadlock for me from time to time in my career. Patience is very important. You have to accept, that if your system is reliable and you put on a trade based on the setup, then you can do and you have to do only one thing: manage the risk, which means manage how much you afford to LOSE! You have to accept that more than 50-60 % of your trades can be losers. You don't have to, what's more probably you must not close the trade because "you feel something wrong". Just use proper stops and position sizing, then you get stopped or you make money.
If you feel this uncomfort too often, then you have to check your concept as a whole. Why you don't trust in it, is it too subjective, etc.
Killy_Mel
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I see your point, and agree in most ways)
on FX however my strategy is to look for positions in the evening/night and to protect them next morning/day (if they are still open) - call it a time stop if you will.. it is due to FX market specifics that I am observing since 2009
In this instance yes, I would win if I waited for today - my stop/target was not that close:
However since I bailed It allowed me to enter another trade on USDCAD with a clear head last evening and I closed it pretty fast (in 3 hrs) - I published it here as yesterdays FX chart of the day.
so anyway in this instance I win=)
///
on setups / systems.. its a long story - I combine what can be called setups (entries) with intuition... and what can be called setups (exits) with disciplie... and time stops=)
However if you look at the daily Ichimoku, then you have to look for sell signals. Bit tricky, as the two time frames do not coincide.
So basically I agree that short USDJPY still has higher probability to work well, but as you see on both time frames the key breakdown level (stop sell entry) is somewhere around 120,30, while the possible limit sell area is around 122,50 (in case you get some sell signal there)