Our take on the Yen...

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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Weekly timeframe perspective: The USD/JPY pair ended the week closing (118.91) deep within a small weekly decision-point demand area at 118.22-119.40, consequently forming a bearish pin bar candle in the process. In the event that price breaks below this area this week, we may see price attack the low 116.86, or even the major weekly swap level seen just below it at 115.50.

Daily timeframe perspective: From the daily picture, we can see that resistive pressure came into the market last week from the underside of a daily supply area seen at 121.18-120.08. The selling from here brought prices down as far as 118.71 - forty or so pips above a daily support level coming at 118.32 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly decision-point demand area).

Should price push below this level this week, we’ll be then shifting our attention to focus on the daily demand area positioned at 116.86-117.54.

4hr timeframe perspective: Friday’s trading sessions were full of energy. Negative NFP data forced the USD/JPY pair to take a dive, consequently consuming not only the 119.42 4hr Quasimodo support level , but also 119.00 as well, which, as you can see, was retested as resistance into the close.

Even though this pair is in a strong uptrend at the moment, more and more things are pointing to a further decline here. We not only have weak-looking price action seen within the weekly decision-point demand area at 118.22-119.40, we also have the daily timeframe telling us that there’s room for potential selling down to at least the daily support at 118.32, and to top it all, the 4hr timeframe is showing that price has likely taken out the last 4hr ‘supportive structure’ (119.00) above the aforementioned daily support level seen below marked in green.

Taking all of the above into consideration, assuming that the sellers can hold out below 119.00 today, it is very likely this could be the start of a further decline in value down to the daily support level this week. As good as this looks, selling today is not something we’d be comfortable doing since liquidity will very likely be extremely low due to the Easter holidays. We’re personally going to hold fire here, and maybe reevaluate our thinking depending on where price opens on Tuesday when liquidity should be back to normal.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: 119.00 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

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I am already short from 119.702, and have a limit sell at 119.22 as well. Already covered half to make the first batch risk free...

I agree with your support and resistance levels, and would like to add that the monthly chart shows a very weak bar, with its low being 118.32, so it's not only the daily support, but also a monthly chart level of interest:

ICmarkets IvanLabrie
Thanks for the update on the monthly scenario, much appreciated...

Good luck with your trade!

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