USDJPY: BOJ DEPT GOV IWATA - MORE WORDS, NO ACTION; SELL 101/2.5
BOJ dept Gov Iwata was the most recent in what seems to be a slew of attempts by JPY officials, whether it be Govt or BOJ to try and weaken the Yen with yet again more dovish/ promising rhetoric. Statements such as "prepared to loosen policy further without hesitation" where in my mind no doubt undermined by the BOJ's seemingly blind assesment of future expectations - with Iwata claiming inflation should hit 2% by the end of 2017, even though policy is relatively unchanged since January where inflation has gotten worse so i dont know how JPN is going to pull off what would be the fastest increase in inflation in history. Further, comments such as "BOJ increased ETF purchases to prevent worsening of corporate and public sentiment" were naive at best.. 30bn of etf purchases in a year amounts to that of an average sized hedgefund OR a very small asset manager, so how he thinks such action will uplift the worlds largest economy with increased measures of less than 1% of its GDP more than baffles me. BOJ/ Govt seem deluded to the greatest extent, or more realistically - holding $yen shorts from the start of the year, no poilcy but strong rhetoric certainly supports this view (humorous).
More seriously though, BOJ et als inability to take real responsibility for printed targets, and make policy = words to me makes the future clear for $yen trading. Lower is the only direction that is clear from here - in what was the most pressured BOJ meeting, from both markets and govt perspective, the BOJ performance was dismal so it leads the question, if not now why would it ever change? And Iwatas comments back this up, from the dept govs view, JPN is on firm track to hit its targets in amazing fashion.. so with such strong/ positive views (even if no data supporting), why will BOJ ease drastically more? they wont, as if most share his sentiment (which they do with most not voting to change the rate or JGB purchases which make up the bulk of the easing programme).
So all in all, Iwata's and previous speakers comments firmly in mind short $yen is now my view - after being a strong $yen bull on the basis of big easing with risk-on spill overs. Fading rallies seems appropriate and the 101.5 level today held unfazed which looks like a good level to add shorts for the imminent 100 level break. On the way down 101.5 was an intermediate level, 102 was the key so I am surprised it held and would prefer to short from the 102 nonetheless (much more likely to hold and 50 more easy pips of downside).
BOJ IWATA SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
More seriously though, BOJ et als inability to take real responsibility for printed targets, and make policy = words to me makes the future clear for $yen trading. Lower is the only direction that is clear from here - in what was the most pressured BOJ meeting, from both markets and govt perspective, the BOJ performance was dismal so it leads the question, if not now why would it ever change? And Iwatas comments back this up, from the dept govs view, JPN is on firm track to hit its targets in amazing fashion.. so with such strong/ positive views (even if no data supporting), why will BOJ ease drastically more? they wont, as if most share his sentiment (which they do with most not voting to change the rate or JGB purchases which make up the bulk of the easing programme).
So all in all, Iwata's and previous speakers comments firmly in mind short $yen is now my view - after being a strong $yen bull on the basis of big easing with risk-on spill overs. Fading rallies seems appropriate and the 101.5 level today held unfazed which looks like a good level to add shorts for the imminent 100 level break. On the way down 101.5 was an intermediate level, 102 was the key so I am surprised it held and would prefer to short from the 102 nonetheless (much more likely to hold and 50 more easy pips of downside).
BOJ IWATA SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
