A quick commentary here on the potential temporary unwinding of USDJPY . Predictive analysis and forecasting, combined with proprietary pattern are lining up near 102.550.
Although the grand scheme remains Dollar, an interim unwinding to the downside is not excluded. A break of 103.428 floor would open up to 102.940. However, as indicated above, a solid floor is defined at 102.550. Therefore, while price unwinds, or carves new structure-highs, I will turn the directional indicator to "Neutral".
This trader's directional bias is neutral to for technicals defined above.
Predictive analysis and forecasting system is neutral to .
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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As you may recall, last week I warned that fundamental and technical elements had lined up to favor a decline. Since then, price did roll and hit the expect Wolve Waves pattern's 1-4 Target Line and had consolidated in the following interim of time. At this point, I would call this a perfect Wolve Waves completion:
What remains is a probable target lower down, which may come to fruition, even though the larger trend remains bullish, as indicated in the larger chart, where a secondary target near 105 remains open for validation.
Since this Doji occurred right dead-on at the target defined ("TG-1 = 104.095") back in March 04th, it seems to make a solid case for a reversal at ths point.
If indeed the floor breaks at 103.752 (last bearish pinbar per 4-hour chart), then there is little resistance to prevent this knife from falling to the next solid support, namely: 102.563, our next forecast target.
I thought it interesting to look at the current price action in this (tiny) 5-minute chart, merely to appreciate the effect of projected lines continue to impose on price, such as this 2-4 Line, acting as a significant support-turned-resistance:
Now that these two minor targets were hit, question is whether the larger target (defined as 104.095 - 04 MAR 2014) in the chart above will get hit, followed by a price reversal.
My predictive analysis and forecasting system indicates so. Let's see what happens next.
As a follow-up to the analysis addition I provided today, we are now standing at the point where price DID reverse to the upside to hit one of the predefined targets, namely: TG-1 = 103.991.
IF price did reverse from this level, it could indicate a significant move in the direction of the unwinding we discussed about earlier today.
Potential Wolfe Wave pattern developing in USDJPY, threatening to break above recent highs, but playing out a potential scenario as it unfolds.
WOLFE WAVES COMPOSITION AND PROJECTED LEVELS OF REVERSAL IF 1-3-5 LINE FAILS RESISTANCE PLAY:
- This scenario is a very plausible one, as it would effectively take out long pending order entries on the way to the 3-5' Line.
The Wolfe trader should consider a SHORT entry at a significant FIB level above (here, I defined the 1.414 and the 1.618 @ 103.001 and 104.051 respectively.