4xForecaster

102.550, Here We Come ... ? | $USD $JPY #BOJ #FED #Forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
529 10 6
Friends,

A quick commentary here on the potential temporary unwinding of USDJPY             . Predictive analysis and forecasting, combined with proprietary pattern are lining up near 102.550.


OVERALL:

Although the grand scheme remains bullish Dollar, an interim unwinding to the downside is not excluded. A break of 103.428 floor would open up to 102.940. However, as indicated above, a solid floor is defined at 102.550. Therefore, while price unwinds, or carves new structure-highs, I will turn the directional indicator to "Neutral".

This trader's directional bias is neutral to bearish for technicals defined above.

Predictive analysis and forecasting system is neutral to bearish .

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting


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Disclaimer:
- Remember to remain dubious about every and any thing I say. All comments are subjective perceptions based on unshared, proprietary and common knowledge of fundamental analysis, classic technical analysis , basic and advanced pattern trading, as well as personal research in occult market geometries, predictive analysis and quant-based forecasting, some or none of which is being shared in my trading profiles, so do your due diligence and review the disclaimer below.
- Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
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Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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jakebaty
2 years ago
Just want to add. That 102.56 is the 61.8 fib retracement of the last move up. So this adds up nicely!
Reply
Something to watch. Most Yen crosses have reached strong resistance points. EUR/JPY. CAD/JPY. AUD/JPY etc. Intresting to see what happen from here.
Reply
02 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

Potential Wolfe Wave pattern developing in USDJPY, threatening to break above recent highs, but playing out a potential scenario as it unfolds.


WOLFE WAVES COMPOSITION AND PROJECTED LEVELS OF REVERSAL IF 1-3-5 LINE FAILS RESISTANCE PLAY:
- This scenario is a very plausible one, as it would effectively take out long pending order entries on the way to the 3-5' Line.

The Wolfe trader should consider a SHORT entry at a significant FIB level above (here, I defined the 1.414 and the 1.618 @ 103.001 and 104.051 respectively.

snapshot



Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
02 APR 2014 - Chart Update: TG-1 Hit ... Reversal?

snapshot


Friends,

As a follow-up to the analysis addition I provided today, we are now standing at the point where price DID reverse to the upside to hit one of the predefined targets, namely: TG-1 = 103.991.

IF price did reverse from this level, it could indicate a significant move in the direction of the unwinding we discussed about earlier today.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
02 APR 2014 - Yet, One More Target Hit:

snapshot


Now that these two minor targets were hit, question is whether the larger target (defined as 104.095 - 04 MAR 2014) in the chart above will get hit, followed by a price reversal.

My predictive analysis and forecasting system indicates so. Let's see what happens next.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
03 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

I thought it interesting to look at the current price action in this (tiny) 5-minute chart, merely to appreciate the effect of projected lines continue to impose on price, such as this 2-4 Line, acting as a significant support-turned-resistance:

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
03 APR 2014 - Chart Update: Target Hit Dead-On:

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
KevinT 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Are you still expecting the 102.563 retrace?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO KevinT
2 years ago
Hello @KevinT - At this point, there has not been any change in the technical event. On a pure fundamental basis, soft ISM data and stagnant employment have made for a non-committal economic situation as far as bullish outlook goes. Whether this means that things are petering out or forming a baseline, I would not know, but, the predictive trend remains quite bullish at these levels until the recent volume spike associated with a classic Doji candle formation in the 4-hour chart. Technical analyst might possibly look back at it as the foreshadowing mark of an imminent reversal.

Since this Doji occurred right dead-on at the target defined ("TG-1 = 104.095") back in March 04th, it seems to make a solid case for a reversal at ths point.

If indeed the floor breaks at 103.752 (last bearish pinbar per 4-hour chart), then there is little resistance to prevent this knife from falling to the next solid support, namely: 102.563, our next forecast target.

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
07 APR 2014 - Chart Update: Wolve's Target Hit:

As you may recall, last week I warned that fundamental and technical elements had lined up to favor a decline. Since then, price did roll and hit the expect Wolve Waves pattern's 1-4 Target Line and had consolidated in the following interim of time. At this point, I would call this a perfect Wolve Waves completion:

snapshot


What remains is a probable target lower down, which may come to fruition, even though the larger trend remains bullish, as indicated in the larger chart, where a secondary target near 105 remains open for validation.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
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