102.550, Here We Come ... ? | $USD $JPY #BOJ #FED #Forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
529 10 6

A quick commentary here on the potential temporary unwinding of USDJPY             . Predictive analysis and forecasting, combined with proprietary pattern are lining up near 102.550.


Although the grand scheme remains bullish Dollar, an interim unwinding to the downside is not excluded. A break of 103.428 floor would open up to 102.940. However, as indicated above, a solid floor is defined at 102.550. Therefore, while price unwinds, or carves new structure-highs, I will turn the directional indicator to "Neutral".

This trader's directional bias is neutral to bearish for technicals defined above.

Predictive analysis and forecasting system is neutral to bearish .


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting

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David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

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07 APR 2014 - Chart Update: Wolve's Target Hit:

As you may recall, last week I warned that fundamental and technical elements had lined up to favor a decline. Since then, price did roll and hit the expect Wolve Waves pattern's 1-4 Target Line and had consolidated in the following interim of time. At this point, I would call this a perfect Wolve Waves completion:

What remains is a probable target lower down, which may come to fruition, even though the larger trend remains bullish, as indicated in the larger chart, where a secondary target near 105 remains open for validation.


David Alcindor
03 APR 2014 - Chart Update: Target Hit Dead-On:


David Alcindor
KevinT 4xForecaster
Are you still expecting the 102.563 retrace?
Hello @KevinT - At this point, there has not been any change in the technical event. On a pure fundamental basis, soft ISM data and stagnant employment have made for a non-committal economic situation as far as bullish outlook goes. Whether this means that things are petering out or forming a baseline, I would not know, but, the predictive trend remains quite bullish at these levels until the recent volume spike associated with a classic Doji candle formation in the 4-hour chart. Technical analyst might possibly look back at it as the foreshadowing mark of an imminent reversal.

Since this Doji occurred right dead-on at the target defined ("TG-1 = 104.095") back in March 04th, it seems to make a solid case for a reversal at ths point.

If indeed the floor breaks at 103.752 (last bearish pinbar per 4-hour chart), then there is little resistance to prevent this knife from falling to the next solid support, namely: 102.563, our next forecast target.


David Alcindor
03 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

I thought it interesting to look at the current price action in this (tiny) 5-minute chart, merely to appreciate the effect of projected lines continue to impose on price, such as this 2-4 Line, acting as a significant support-turned-resistance:


David Alcindor
02 APR 2014 - Yet, One More Target Hit:

Now that these two minor targets were hit, question is whether the larger target (defined as 104.095 - 04 MAR 2014) in the chart above will get hit, followed by a price reversal.

My predictive analysis and forecasting system indicates so. Let's see what happens next.


David Alcindor
02 APR 2014 - Chart Update: TG-1 Hit ... Reversal?


As a follow-up to the analysis addition I provided today, we are now standing at the point where price DID reverse to the upside to hit one of the predefined targets, namely: TG-1 = 103.991.

IF price did reverse from this level, it could indicate a significant move in the direction of the unwinding we discussed about earlier today.


David Alcindor
02 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

Potential Wolfe Wave pattern developing in USDJPY, threatening to break above recent highs, but playing out a potential scenario as it unfolds.

- This scenario is a very plausible one, as it would effectively take out long pending order entries on the way to the 3-5' Line.

The Wolfe trader should consider a SHORT entry at a significant FIB level above (here, I defined the 1.414 and the 1.618 @ 103.001 and 104.051 respectively.


David Alcindor
Something to watch. Most Yen crosses have reached strong resistance points. EUR/JPY. CAD/JPY. AUD/JPY etc. Intresting to see what happen from here.
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