A quick commentary here on the potential temporary unwinding of USDJPY. Predictive analysis and forecasting, combined with proprietary pattern are lining up near 102.550.
OVERALL:
Although the grand scheme remains bullish Dollar, an interim unwinding to the downside is not excluded. A break of 103.428 floor would open up to 102.940. However, as indicated above, a solid floor is defined at 102.550. Therefore, while price unwinds, or carves new structure-highs, I will turn the directional indicator to "Neutral".
This trader's directional bias is neutral to bearish for technicals defined above.
Predictive analysis and forecasting system is neutral to bearish.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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Comments
4xForecaster
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07 APR 2014 - Chart Update: Wolve's Target Hit:
As you may recall, last week I warned that fundamental and technical elements had lined up to favor a decline. Since then, price did roll and hit the expect Wolve Waves pattern's 1-4 Target Line and had consolidated in the following interim of time. At this point, I would call this a perfect Wolve Waves completion:
What remains is a probable target lower down, which may come to fruition, even though the larger trend remains bullish, as indicated in the larger chart, where a secondary target near 105 remains open for validation.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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03 APR 2014 - Chart Update: Target Hit Dead-On:
Cheers,
David Alcindor
KevinT
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Are you still expecting the 102.563 retrace?
4xForecaster
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Hello @KevinT - At this point, there has not been any change in the technical event. On a pure fundamental basis, soft ISM data and stagnant employment have made for a non-committal economic situation as far as bullish outlook goes. Whether this means that things are petering out or forming a baseline, I would not know, but, the predictive trend remains quite bullish at these levels until the recent volume spike associated with a classic Doji candle formation in the 4-hour chart. Technical analyst might possibly look back at it as the foreshadowing mark of an imminent reversal.
Since this Doji occurred right dead-on at the target defined ("TG-1 = 104.095") back in March 04th, it seems to make a solid case for a reversal at ths point.
If indeed the floor breaks at 103.752 (last bearish pinbar per 4-hour chart), then there is little resistance to prevent this knife from falling to the next solid support, namely: 102.563, our next forecast target.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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03 APR 2014 - Chart Update:
I thought it interesting to look at the current price action in this (tiny) 5-minute chart, merely to appreciate the effect of projected lines continue to impose on price, such as this 2-4 Line, acting as a significant support-turned-resistance:
Cheers,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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02 APR 2014 - Yet, One More Target Hit:
Now that these two minor targets were hit, question is whether the larger target (defined as 104.095 - 04 MAR 2014) in the chart above will get hit, followed by a price reversal.
My predictive analysis and forecasting system indicates so. Let's see what happens next.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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02 APR 2014 - Chart Update: TG-1 Hit ... Reversal?
Friends,
As a follow-up to the analysis addition I provided today, we are now standing at the point where price DID reverse to the upside to hit one of the predefined targets, namely: TG-1 = 103.991.
IF price did reverse from this level, it could indicate a significant move in the direction of the unwinding we discussed about earlier today.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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02 APR 2014 - Chart Update:
Potential Wolfe Wave pattern developing in USDJPY, threatening to break above recent highs, but playing out a potential scenario as it unfolds.
WOLFE WAVES COMPOSITION AND PROJECTED LEVELS OF REVERSAL IF 1-3-5 LINE FAILS RESISTANCE PLAY:
- This scenario is a very plausible one, as it would effectively take out long pending order entries on the way to the 3-5' Line.
The Wolfe trader should consider a SHORT entry at a significant FIB level above (here, I defined the 1.414 and the 1.618 @ 103.001 and 104.051 respectively.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
the_one_that_got_away
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Something to watch. Most Yen crosses have reached strong resistance points. EUR/JPY. CAD/JPY. AUD/JPY etc. Intresting to see what happen from here.
As you may recall, last week I warned that fundamental and technical elements had lined up to favor a decline. Since then, price did roll and hit the expect Wolve Waves pattern's 1-4 Target Line and had consolidated in the following interim of time. At this point, I would call this a perfect Wolve Waves completion:
What remains is a probable target lower down, which may come to fruition, even though the larger trend remains bullish, as indicated in the larger chart, where a secondary target near 105 remains open for validation.
Cheers,
David Alcindor