Last week, I posted this Scenario #1 (see Related Ideas: "QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Scenario #1: Contracting Triangle Wave 4") . That scenario worked out PERFECTLY. as prices hit the upper TL before the FOMC and then declined all the way down to the lower TL for a nice and quick profit.
But after prices had dropped through that triangle, there was a stop and reverse V-reversal which left yet another LARGER triangle in place. And that i what I am now showing here. The recent low created is now the new D point of the triangle and prices are going to be working their way back up towards the top TL of the new triangle (which is the same TL of the former smaller triangle) in an E wave.
Within this final wave E of the triangle, there is a POTENTIAL Bearish shark pattern developing which also has its 1.13 completion just slightly beyond the upper TL which indicates a possible E wave overthrow of prices. However, as with all valid shark patterns, the shark is followed by 5-0 pattern. In this case, a POTENTIAL bullish 5-0 pattern which could send prices back up. Something to be aware of.
OVERVIEW OF TRIANGLE - 4Hr Chart
MY TRADE PLAN Under this scenario, at this point I would do the same as in the Scenario #2 and wait for a retrace of this beginning leg in the uptrend back up into the upper TL. Only after I see that retrace will I consider to take a LONG position. However, if prices continue up, I will NOT take any LONG position until I see what happens at the upper TL and the completion of the shark pattern. At that point, I will be watching the price action to look for clues that prices may continue up following my Scenario #2 posting (see Related Ideas: " UPDATE #1: QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Scenario #2: ABC 5-3-5 ZigZag"). Then I will decide what to do.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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EDIT: There's been some confusion as to my meaning in MY TRADE PLAN so I will rephrase here:
I said, "Under this scenario, at this point I would do the same as in the Scenario #2 and wait for a retrace of this beginning leg in the uptrend back up into the upper TL. Only after I see that retrace will I consider to take a LONG position. However, if prices continue up, I will NOT take any LONG position until I see what happens at the upper TL and the completion of the shark pattern. At that point, I will be watching the price action to look for clues that prices may continue up following my Scenario #2 posting (see Related Ideas: " UPDATE #1: QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Scenario #2: ABC 5-3-5 ZigZag"). Then I will decide what to do. "
This is what I meant to say:
MY TRADE PLAN
Under this scenario, at this point I would do the same as in the Scenario #2 I posted and wait for prices to retrace BACK DOWN into the LOWER TL or near it to establish what would either be a wave b (under a triangle scenario) or a wave 2 (under Scenario #2) before I consider to take any LONG position for a move up to the upper TL. When prices reach the upper TL, I will watch the price action to see if it will continue up past the upper TL to complete the bearish shark. At that point, I will be looking for bearish price action to go SHORT or if prices continue higher, I'll be looking for opportunities to go LONG as per Scenario #2.
I said, "Under this scenario, at this point I would do the same as in the Scenario #2 and wait for a retrace of this beginning leg in the uptrend back up into the upper TL. Only after I see that retrace will I consider to take a LONG position. However, if prices continue up, I will NOT take any LONG position until I see what happens at the upper TL and the completion of the shark pattern. At that point, I will be watching the price action to look for clues that prices may continue up following my Scenario #2 posting (see Related Ideas: " UPDATE #1: QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Scenario #2: ABC 5-3-5 ZigZag"). Then I will decide what to do. "
This is what I meant to say:
MY TRADE PLAN
Under this scenario, at this point I would do the same as in the Scenario #2 I posted and wait for prices to retrace BACK DOWN into the LOWER TL or near it to establish what would either be a wave b (under a triangle scenario) or a wave 2 (under Scenario #2) before I consider to take any LONG position for a move up to the upper TL. When prices reach the upper TL, I will watch the price action to see if it will continue up past the upper TL to complete the bearish shark. At that point, I will be looking for bearish price action to go SHORT or if prices continue higher, I'll be looking for opportunities to go LONG as per Scenario #2.
Apologies for the confusion!