TRADE: USDJPY BUY@120.530 Completed Bat + Completed Wave 3

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
847 6 21
I haven't posted on this pair in awhile. So let me go ahead and post this trade here. Now of course, we are looking at the FOMC coming up in 2 days as well as a bunch of news tomorrow. So there may be A LOT of back and forth in this as well as other pairs in the next day. So taking any trade, you must be wary of that.

Having said that, here's why I am taking a BUY in this pair.

Here in this 4HR Chart below, the downtrend is clear. So this trade is a counter-trend trade against a downtrend. But one in which the momentum has slowed already.

For awhile now, my wave count has this decline as all part of a 5-wave             wave (c) move down. Within that wave (c) down, there has been a clear wave (1) and wave (2). And now the wave (3) also seems quite clear. If those 3 waves are correct, then this move up should be a wave (4) retracement back up.

For a long time now, I had been anticiapting that this Bat would complete. And it has. Just recently. This bat also completed right at some nice fib confluence with the 1.618 golden ratio extension of the wave ( iii             ) of (3). I had pointed that area out as a possible reversal area some time ago.

I'm LONG in this pair and am placing stops below the 1.414 level in the bat PRZ. If my count is correct, there may be a long way to go up for this retrace. It might just consolidate here until the FOMC to explode upwards.

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Can you direct me for JPYINR?
Sorry. I don't trade that pair at all.
Long as per this idea just now

As in your analysis' wave count iii and iv, possible e of ending diagonal wave v still to come (1.2015 area)...?? (PA seems to indicate against this, seems to be taking off now...)
great idea ... I agree most likely Wednesday the Fed will raise rates, if the dollar will appreciate very right?
Generally speaking, yes. If Fed raises rates, then the dollar will rise. But can't take that for granted. There are so many variables to consider. First, of course, is that will the Fed raise rates or delay again? It is NOT guaranteed that they will. Second, if they raise rates, how much will they raise it? If they raise it and it is less than is expected, will the disappointment sent the dollar down instead? Third, how much of all this rate raising rumors have already been priced into the market? So you see, just because everyone and his mom is expecting a rate increase, this does not automatically mean the dollar will rise.
+1 Reply
jukilo2000 EverythingForex
thanks for the reply
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