Having said that, here's why I am taking a BUY in this pair.
Here in this 4HR Chart below, the downtrend is clear. So this trade is a counter-trend trade against a downtrend. But one in which the momentum has slowed already.
For awhile now, my wave count has this decline as all part of a 5-wave wave (c) move down. Within that wave (c) down, there has been a clear wave (1) and wave (2). And now the wave (3) also seems quite clear. If those 3 waves are correct, then this move up should be a wave (4) retracement back up.
For a long time now, I had been anticiapting that this Bat would complete. And it has. Just recently. This bat also completed right at some nice fib confluence with the 1.618 golden ratio extension of the wave ( iii ) of (3). I had pointed that area out as a possible reversal area some time ago.
MY TRADE PLAN
I'm LONG in this pair and am placing stops below the 1.414 level in the bat PRZ. If my count is correct, there may be a long way to go up for this retrace. It might just consolidate here until the FOMC to explode upwards.
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