USDJPY waiting for a trendline breakout for a LONG

USDJPY seems to be in an ascending diagonal for a Wave C (black). I expect some more short-term downside for one more lower low, probably testing 111.50, in a confluence of a support region, 0.618 FIB, and a rising trendline from March.

A LONG trade can be taken after breakout of the October descending trendline. My first target is at the 100% extension of A->B just below 115 (which is also a major resistance area).

RSI & MACD aren't showing divergence, which is supporting of the continued downside for the short-term.

Maybe I'll even take a quick SHORT trade to get some low-risk pips.

Comment:

Grabbed 40 easy pips on a quick short... and the green uptrend line is holding up nicely so far.

RSI & MACD are beginning to show divergence. EW count on smaller TFs also show a possible ending of wave C. I might even take a small LONG position on the next touch of the trendline.

Comment:

Trendline was broken. Ideally we should have a pullback very soon, maybe even a retest of the uptrend line (green). That will be my entry point.

Trade active:

Uptrend line tested and rejected.