Sometimes I get annoyed in the trade room when the crowd wants to short every time they see USDJPY hit an up spike. There is however a big elephant in the room and that is the Trump factor causing the 2017 downwards momentum and sentiment.
There is no doubt that the US economy is still incredibly healthy with jobless levels at record lows. Economic data is by and large very positive for the US and a mixed bag for JPY.
The other factor to look at is bond rates. The US 10 yr bond rate is at 2.25% (weekly + 0.01%, Monthly -0.15%, Yearly +0.36%). The Japan bond rate is 0.02% (weekly -0.08%, monthly -0.04%, Yearly -0.01%). Interest rate parity on its own suggests that the USD will outperform the YEN over the long term. It is true that rate hikes will put downward pressure on bond prices and this sentiment is also weighing heavily in the market. The question is do I think US bond prices will be lower than JP ones in the next 5 years then the answer is no and as long as this is the case then the USD will outperform the YEN on a theoretical basis in any case.
Current OANDA long sentiment is still around 65% which supports the expectations above. Current market movements are being caused mainly by short term speculation and it would be interesting to see whether Trump's pro-fed stance will lead to greater stability.
This is a longer-term view and my personal strategy is to take the opportunities presented by the bears to go long. Having positive interest swaps is a nice bonus to my account.
There is no doubt that the US economy is still incredibly healthy with jobless levels at record lows. Economic data is by and large very positive for the US and a mixed bag for JPY.
The other factor to look at is bond rates. The US 10 yr bond rate is at 2.25% (weekly + 0.01%, Monthly -0.15%, Yearly +0.36%). The Japan bond rate is 0.02% (weekly -0.08%, monthly -0.04%, Yearly -0.01%). Interest rate parity on its own suggests that the USD will outperform the YEN over the long term. It is true that rate hikes will put downward pressure on bond prices and this sentiment is also weighing heavily in the market. The question is do I think US bond prices will be lower than JP ones in the next 5 years then the answer is no and as long as this is the case then the USD will outperform the YEN on a theoretical basis in any case.
Current OANDA long sentiment is still around 65% which supports the expectations above. Current market movements are being caused mainly by short term speculation and it would be interesting to see whether Trump's pro-fed stance will lead to greater stability.
This is a longer-term view and my personal strategy is to take the opportunities presented by the bears to go long. Having positive interest swaps is a nice bonus to my account.