News background & trading ideas for 15/02/2019

Before talking about the market’s sentiments at the end of the week, let’s analyze yesterday’s events.

Let’s say that the main surprise for statistics data became external trade numbers of China. Chinese export has literally soared by 9.1% (analysts had expected a decline of 3.2%). What does it mean? That it is too soon to write the engine of the world economy off. What are the consequences of this? The demand for safe-haven assets may well fall down. Actually, the decline of the Japanese yen is a clear confirmation of this. In theory, the next one is gold. So, we will refrain from recommendations of USDJPY sales and even side up into its purchases.

We can buy USDJPY from the masses 110 with profits of 111 and stops below 109.70.

Nevertheless, gold is risky to sell so far. By “so far” we mean, as long as it is above 1294. Recall that for us this is the divide of the balance of power in gold. As long as the asset varies above this mark intraday, gold is quite possible to buy. But in case of the breakdown, we can safely side up into sales. So we buy gold in the area of 1295-1300 with profits above 1310 and stops below 1290.
From other data, it is worth noting the GDP of the Eurozone, which came out exactly as part of the forecasts.

However, the main data, of course, became retail sales in the United States. We have warned in yesterday's review that the data may unpleasantly surprise us. So as it actually happened. With the forecast of +0.1% m/m, the actual numbers was -1.2% m/m (!). It was logically that, amid such fiasco, the dollar underwent massive sales.

Along with the United States, Canada also checked with weak data. Industrial sales in December fell by 1.3% m/m, while analysts have been expected growth of + 0.4% m/m. So the pressure on the Canadian dollar as a whole is explicable. However, we continue to recommend looking for points for sales of the USDCAD pair. Sell from the current, the stops above 1.3350, profits are 1,3200.

Since the EURUSD transactions steadily generate profit, we continue to recommend purchases of the pair from 1.1260-1.1280. Stops below 1.1230. Profit in the area of 1.1420.

The Russian ruble worked out our forecast in an exemplary manner. But that's no reason to close its sales, albeit in a good plus. By and large, it is just a beginning, which means that the plus may still grow, so we continue to sell the Russian ruble.