USD/JPY technical outlook and review

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows price has closed just above the upper limits of a symmetrical triangle formation (121.83/117.43). Assuming that the buyers can hold out above this barrier, further upside could be seen this week up to around the weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18.

Daily Timeframe: The latest from the daily timeframe reveals that price is currently being supported by a daily decision-point demand area coming in at 118.32-119.09. This support barrier does not look very stable in our opinion due to the break lower seen on the 17/02/15. In the event that price closes below this area, we’ll likely see renewed selling interest down to a daily demand area positioned at 116.86-117.54.

4hr Timeframe: Recent developments on the 4hr timeframe show that a sell off was seen on Friday, but consequently found the 4hr decision-point area at 118.32-118.54 (located deep within the aforementioned daily decision-point area) supportive enough for the buyers to rally price back up to 119.00, which, as you can probably see, is exactly where the market closed for the week.

Although we’ve seen price close above the weekly triangle formation (see above), our team will not commit to buying this market until price consumes the 119.35 4hr swap level. The reasons for why are as follows:

1. Price action around the daily decision-point demand area (see above) has not exactly been showing much in the way of buying strength at present. What is more, this daily area was (as mentioned above) also breached on the 17/02/15, thus some of the buyers may have already been stopped out i.e. consumed.
2. Potential round-number resistance at 119.00.

Closing above 119.35 will likely see a prompt retest forcing the market up to at least 120.00. This is something our team would most definitely be interested in taking part in, as it would also offer some confirmation that the recent close above the weekly triangle (see above) was genuine.

With regards to selling, our team have come to a general consensus that it would be in our best interest to wait for a close below the aforementioned 4hr decision-point demand area before considering shorting this pair, since this would likely set the stage for a continuation move south down towards 117.86. On a side note, if anyone is considering shorting 119.00 today, remain vigilant to the possibility that the sellers may have already been taken out here by the wick seen at 119.17 seen just before the close.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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